Powerball

The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW...

If current model indications are accurate, I think this is going to be the largest "spread the wealth" storm we've seen in well over a decade.

I mean, latest model trends suggest Metro Detroit could get warning criteria snow out of this. Or does that not count?

It's not often you see the entire state of OK under a Winter Storm Warning, and the entire states of TX/OK/AR under winter weather headlines.

GFS is kind of on its own with that depiction (granted, I'm ok with that since the GFS has apparently been doing quite well this season). The other models aren't nearly as generous, and some of them (NAM and EURO) are doing funky things with the areas of best forcing. That said, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued (yes, 48 hours out) for 3-6" of snow. FWD is using the word "historic." URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 249 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...HISTORIC WINTER STORM POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Impacts will begin as early as Saturday morning with patchy freezing drizzle developing late tonight into Saturday morning, which will lead to a light glaze of ice in some locations. After a brief break in precipitation on Saturday, conditions will begin to deteriorate late Saturday evening, with precipitation transitioning from a sleet and freezing rain mix to all snow by Sunday. The heaviest snow can be expected on Sunday and Monday. High winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow with wind chills falling to below zero by late Sunday. Snow will come to an end during the day Monday, but extremely cold temperatures will persist through mid-week. The heavy snow and forecast long duration of extremely cold temperatures will likely lead to major stress on the region`s infrastructure as well as crippling travel for several days. TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-130500- /O.UPG.KFWD.WS.A.0002.210214T0600Z-210216T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0003.210213T1200Z-210216T0000Z/ Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill- Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls- Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert 249 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze. Strong winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow reducing visibility to less than one mile at times. Wind chill factors below zero are forecast on Sunday, continuing into Monday and Tuesday. * WHERE...Much of North and Central Texas. * WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. Hazardous conditions will persist for several days given the expected prolonged duration of extremely cold temperatures. The cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is highly discouraged on Sunday and Monday. If you must travel, keep tools necessary for survival in extreme cold in your vehicle. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org.

I will also leave this here. This is cumulative between Sunday night and Wednesday's storm:

Lake Effect Snow in Texas!? Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Fort Worth TX1033 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>134-121830-VanZandt-Rockwall-Somervell-Montague-Dallas-Wise-Kaufman-Hunt-Parker-Lamar-Denton-Grayson-Johnson-Ellis-Hood-PaloPinto-Hopkins-Collin-Rains-Fannin-Jack-Erath-Tarrant-Delta-Cooke-1033 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021...BRIEF MODERATE SNOW NEAR AREA LAKES IN MONTAGUE...NORTHEASTERNERATH... HOPKINS...RAINS...LAMAR...PALO PINTO...COLLIN...FANNIN...ELLIS... DALLAS...HOOD...VAN ZANDT...DENTON...PARKER...DELTA...ROCKWALL...HUNT...SOMERVELL...KAUFMAN...JOHNSON...WISE...JACK...TARRANT...COOKE AND GRAYSON COUNTIES...At 1030 AM CST, there have been multiple reports of localized lightto moderate snow downstream of area lakes. These areas of snow areusually narrow bands confined to areas near and south of area lakes.Visibility may be reduced to less than 1 mile in snow for briefperiods of time. These rapidly changing conditions could surprisedrivers. Slow down and drive with extreme caution.Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Beprepared for snow or ice on roads near lakes. Slow down and allowextra time when traveling.LAT...LON 3369 9635 3389 9594 3388 9531 3296 95313296 9566 3236 9545 3238 9644 3237 96413233 9638 3205 9694 3226 9709 3209 97873247 9805 3252 9858 3347 9842 3347 97983389 9798 3392 9721 3372 9711 3396 9692TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 180DEG 0KT 3288 9750$$Dunn

We're under a Winter Storm Watch for 3-7" plus near-blizzard conditions Sunday night/Monday, and then it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see several more inches of snow on Wednesday. Who would have thought Dallas (of all places) would see snow on top of snow, lol.

Temps might not even be overdone. Models are already running several degrees behind with the shallow low-level cold air (we've been stuck in the low/mid 30s). Imagine how much colder it will get with a deep snowpack...

It's not often you see both Dallas and Detroit get crushed with powdery snow from the same storm in mid-February.

I know there was the 10th-11th thread, but besides being a day early, it underplay the potential with the title "potent front/system."

I'm almost tempted to make a thread, as February 12th - 13th seems to have good potential for a significant winter storm across the region. The GFS has been showing it for the past couple of runs, and there's good ensemble support. The setup has some similarities to the PV Blizzard back on 1/6/14. That said, I would like to see some more agreement from the EURO and GGEM first.

It seems 4" is the general rule across Metro Detroit, which is pretty impressive given how short in duration the snowfall was.

More lightning strikes now over Lake St. Clair.

The weather weenies at CMU are definitely getting a treat:

Thundersnow right now in Metro Detroit. I'm almost certain michsnowfreak saw/heard something, based on lightning tracker.

CLE's not here to play. Their response:

Several stations in MI and IN are now report SN- and SN.

I'd keep an eye out for TSSN on Thursday afternoon/evening too, as it looks like some pretty decent mid-level instability is showing up.

And before that, they also got decent snow with 3/21/18 and 1/4/18.

I guess we'll find out how well this entire page of posts ages...

Detroit does 'em best.

Someone on here posted a link to this website, which is what I use (it's a NOAA site, BTW): https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/

Yeah, I found the data and edited my post. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2020-O-NEW-KDTX-WS-W-0001/USCOMP-N0Q-202001180300

It doesn't look like a Winter Storm Warning has been issued yet this season for DTX's CWA. In fact, the last one was issued back on 1/18/20.