Powerball

Oof!!!

EDIT: The average joes on Social Media are getting antsy too. They're going to be out for blood, lol.

000 FXUS63 KDTX 022112 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 412 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022 .DISCUSSION... ...Impactful Winter Storm Continues Through the Evening.... MIMIC-TPW PW product continues to show a nice open flow of Gulf moisture surging through across the Midwest and Great Lakes with the earlier 12Z RAOB sounding at DTX recording a PW value of .68 inches, placing it above the 90th percent moving average for this time of year. Good system relative isentropic ascent has capitalized on this surplus of moisture, working along and north of an area of low-level frontogenesis centered between h925 to h800. Some early day synoptic lift from upper-jet dynamics coupled with the above brought impressive and consistent snow rates of 1"/hr around the Flint region, with 6 hour observed totals coming in at 6 inches at Flint Bishop Airport as of 18Z. Recent reports show 20Z totals nearing the 8-10 inch mark for this region. Totals across the Metro region have lagged behind these higher totals north due to a late transition from rain to snow that cut away from the front-end of snow totals, with a secondary factor being the low snow totals as temperatures have hovered around the 32 degree mark. The best push of snow will impact the Metro region through the evening and is discussed below... Moist isentropic ascent and low-level frontogenesis will continue to produce widespread light to moderate snowfall across all of SE MI for the remainder of the late afternoon and evening hours, but the better snow rates (half-inch to three-quarter inch) are expected to transition and remain south across the northern and southern Metro regions, down into the MI/OH border, where better isentropic ascent resides. The ongoing forecast calls for additional accumulations of around 2-5 inches for locations under the Winter Storm Warning (higher amounts hedged across Metro regions) through about Midnight. The loss of upper-jet support and weaker isentropic ascent coupled with the intrusion of very dry air moving in from the northeast between h800-h675 will put an end or will significantly hamper snowfall production leading into early Thursday morning. Snow is expected to first taper off and end across the Winter Weather Advisory zones late this evening through around Midnight from west to east, which coincides well with the current end time of the advisory. It is now looking increasingly likely that snow will then end across the northern half of the ongoing Warning areas around the I69 corridor and down to about I696/96 or so shortly after Midnight as dry air continues to expand south, while locations south to the MI/OH border may see a brief end to activity or lighter snow. An earlier end time to the ongoing Warning or downgrade to a Winter Weather Advisory will be possible overnight, but will let the current system play out and let following shifts make the call. Otherwise, ongoing caa will drop overnight lows into the teens while an uptick in wind gust potential to around 20-25 mph will make it feel like the lower single digits. Better forcing will hold south of the state line overnight leading into Thursday morning and afternoon, but there still remains sufficient moist isentropic ascent aloft with some weaker mid-level fgen that will either maintain or bring renewed snow chances after a brief lull roughly along and south of I-94. It is possible to see some expansion of snowfall north of this into the M59 corridor, but elevated moisture will have to overcome the dry air in place from an advancing polar high. Will maintain likely PoPs south of I-94, where additional accumulations ranging between 1-2 inches will be possible, hedged over Lenawee/Monroe Counties and centered Thursday mid-morning into Thursday early evening. Additional changes to Thursday snowfall will be possible as some hi-res output (ARW) has the snow completely missing the state. Otherwise, locations north are expected to remain dry with the exception of the northern Thumb late Thursday morning into the early afternoon which may see a light dusting of snow as the fetch veers north-northeast. Cold air remains settled over the state as highs attempt to peak in the lower 20s. Any snow activity seen will move out during the late evening as a strong arctic high builds across the Great Lakes. Fresh snowpack and an even better push of colder air with h850 temps dropping below - 10C will support overnight lows in the single digits and wind chills in the negative single digits. The bulk of Friday will remain dry as a shortwave carves southeast from the northern Plains into Michigan by the evening. NBM guidance keeps the area dry with the passage of the wave, but could see PoPs trending slightly up with synoptic enhancement coupled with northwesterly flow advecting lake moisture inland. Friday and Saturday temperatures are forecasted to stay below normal with highs in the upper teens to lower 20s.

That 18z run is even worse than the 12z, which was already Catastrophic-looking.

These responses got me dying right now. I get it though.

Definitely jealous.

The temperature drop has taken a breather for now. Most places are within a degree or two (+/-) of 40*F

From what I can see, the 18z HRRR shuts out everyone but you and DTW from the snow by early tomorrow morning, and even you/DTW are fringed.

So FWD is hedging on a faster transition to sleet to cut down on ice accumulations...

I look up the NWS grid forecast for my location. This morning, it showed 0.2"-0.4" of ice and 1-3" of snow/sleet tomorrow, and now it only shows 0.1"-0.2" of ice and 1-2" of snow/sleet tomorrow.

Ah...the 12z EURO...

Hmmm, looks like FWD lowered the snow/ice amounts. Am interested to read the explanation.

Seems that may. Several sites are reporting moderate to heavy snow.

I would. You can't control the weather, but at least you can be sure you'll have electricity

Overall though, the trend is not good. On the whole, models have definitely increased the ice accumulations.

It seems the Hi-Res models are struggling with how the handle the effect (if any) of DFW's UHI on surface temps. They could be onto something, but we'll have to find out. That 12km NAM run is catastrophic. That would have to be amongst the worst ice storms in Dallas' history.

000 FXUS64 KFWD 021210 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 610 AM CST Wed Feb 2 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The cold front is moving into far Western North Texas at this hour and is outperforming guidance by coming in colder than previously thought. Freezing rain is currently being reported as far south as Fort Sill, OK. Expect the cold air to barrel south through the day. The forecast was adjusted to reflect this change by moving up the onset of winter precipitation. We now have sleet and freezing rain starting over Montague/Young/Jack Counties as early as 10-11 AM. The tail-end of the evening rush hour over the far NW of the Metroplex is now likely to be impacted by winter precip late this afternoon. The other result of the cooler temperatures is that less ice is forecast over Western North Texas. While there will be less ice, there will be more snow and have increased our high end snow forecast to range between 4-6 inches. We remain confident of a significant ice storm occurring tonight, although there may be more sleet than we previously thought due to the cooler temps. The remainder of the forecast discussion below still applies.

I would be careful with those models showing snow. They still show a warm layer aloft during those time frames, plus they tend to be too bullish with ratios. There's also some question of how quickly the better forcing will wane when the transition in p-types take place.

00z models really started to show what's bolded...

That said, I look forward to bumping your post 10 years from now when DFW overtakes Chicagoland in size.

To be fair, Columbus is bucking the trend of most Midwest metros (not named Indianapolis or Minneapolis) and is growing at a modest clip. But at the end of the day, it's still just a glorified college town that happens to also be a state capital and the home of Wendy's.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwnssl&pwplus=1

The NSSL is just plain ugly. Widespread 0.75"+ of ice, and that's right from the start (no rain), and then a good 1"+ in QPF of sleet on top of it (sleet is typically assumed to have a 3:1 ratio, so that translates into 3" of sleet). That would probably shut thing down until Saturday, when it finally melts.