Powerball

BTW, been getting thundersleet for a good while now.

It's true though...

Getting thunder here now as well. Radar suggests DFW will likely be the bullsye for ice accretion & sleet accumulation with this round.

00z model runs were depressing all around. First of all, models are still completely clueless with respect to surface temps, by several degrees. All of DFW has fallen into the mid 20s as of 1am. But more concerning, they've all trended stronger with the 3rd & final wave Wednesday/Thursday while holding temps at/below freezing. It's plausible that could be the most significant round of icing for DFW. It would also mean FWD's current temp forecast is too high and the Winter Storm Warning would need to be extended again.

Looking at posts on Twitter, roads in/around Detroit don't seem to be as bad as you'd expect. That's perhaps the saving grace with temps around 32-34*F.

I meant for this subforum. It's going to be a decent snowstorm in a lot of places, but certainly not a big dog.

Very nice comma head on the radar/satellite. Definitely has that "look," although it will be more bark than bite.

While I'm sure it's the long range HRRR just HRRR-ing, I'm intrigued that it wants to really wrap this up to 992mb over Western OH / Southern IN and keep a closed 500mb low.

Seems like it's going to be a high-end WAA for Detroit. 4-6" appears to be a good call.

Good luck with that... EDIT: Should be a good snowpack refresher though, lol.

This is my first time hearing about that 1965 storm, lol. 1974 was by far the more exciting storm based on everything I've heard/read.

It's funny you mention January 1992. There are synoptic similarities with this storm and that one, with the big difference being the SE ridge is more surpressed. So yeah, this one gets sheared apart. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1992/us0113.php#picture As far as 2/5/11, it did track further SE than this one looks to.

This really could have been a special storm with just a bit less confluence over Ontario/Quebec. Oh well...

That's not what they said. They merely said a NW/stronger solution (still plausible) could lead to lower amounts and mixing issues for the NW Ohio counties in their CWA. That's not the same as saying the storm is being overhyped.

Honestly, the solution from a couple days ago that showed a major winter storm / blizzard up there still isn't entirely out of the realm, even with marginal temps. The questions over the next 24-48 hours will be: 1. Whether the models are shearing the southern wave apart too fast given how much it digs and the strength of the jet streak, which has happened in the past (see 2/5/11 as an example). 2. Whether the models are overestimating the amount of confluence over Canada from today's lead wave. The 12z GFS was definitely a small step in the right direction.

Not so much mixing issues as of late, but definitely rates for sure, since the vast majority of the "big" events have been low-amped (weak lift/instability) and northern-stream dominant (limited moisture). That said, this storm definitely has potential given its gulf origins, the trough taking on a negative tilt and ULL possibly closing off.

Why for me? lol...

The general theme with storms at this range have been for them to trend weaker/SE (thus getting sheared apart) with time as models keep underestimating how progressive the flow is. This system *COULD* defy that trend given the strength of the jet streak involved and the wave being more compact than others, which is why it does have big dog potential for places such as Milwaukee, Des Moines and Northern Michigan. But the wave following closely on its heels and the residual blocking/confluence across Ontario/Quebec are both concerning. Regardless of the outcome, it's likely going to end up being an underwhelming storm for majority of folks on here.

Setup has potential for a Milwaukee crusher, but trends die hard. Still a solid chance this will just unravel into another long-duration advisory event (2-4" or 3-6") for the CHI-DET corridor.

Considering the data for marginal risk areas is only limited to when it debuted in late 2014, I'm not sure how accurate that point this. I suspect if one did some more digging, MN / WI / IA at least had a "SEE TEXT" at some point in the past during January or February.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. If it'a any consolation, the folks in the Southeast and on the East Coast are sharing in your misery.

#Lawngate

Indeed.

lol