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nvck

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Everything posted by nvck

  1. nvck
    This is insane, and just the sheer number of pds warnings so far is wild
  2. nvck
    MDT got even bigger on the latest D1 outlook
  3. nvck
    Wow
  4. nvck
    HREF with a UH bullseye around and north of STL tonight.
  5. nvck
    https://x.com/CameronJNixon/status/1900567103628857486 excellent thread by cameron nixon on why this storm mode may be more supportive of long-track tors than a purely supercellular one IMO, this could be cause enough for a high risk at 1630z
  6. nvck
    Looks as though the lead shortwave that was supposed to "scrub out" some moisture from south and limit northwards moisture advection for friday isn't as strong as forecast
  7. nvck
    NAM3k sounding from SC IL (Mt. Vernon area) for late Friday night
  8. nvck
    cincinnati area saturday afternoon
  9. nvck
    Saturday looking bigger than Friday for both the northern and southern modes
  10. nvck
    Is it worth starting another thread for what looks to be a 2day severe weather event? Expecting that both of these risks will be expanded northwards
  11. nvck
    Lock it in! I'm expecting 0.5" of rain on Saturday, with a few rumbles of thunder
  12. nvck
    Looks as though the first trough next week isn't going to be as strong as was thought earlier, and therefore the next (much more potent system) has more moisture to work with farther north. Also, depending on the timing the trough progression, I could see Saturday also being a decent severe wx day in the eastern bit of the sub, and into the midatlantic
  13. nvck
    https://x.com/ItzRoch11/status/1898430186380484745?t=k9tcfmbrBPZkv892UlEblg&s=19 Someone ran a WRF model on GFS initial conditions for Friday. Take with (many) grains of salt, but still interesting
  14. nvck
    Driving back home from MI, ground was basically completely bare the whole way, though there was a dusting just N of Ft Wayne, where a pretty strong band had been sitting for a little bit. Flurries from Lansing to there basically, but nothing was sticking really. Hoping to bag some 70s this week before a return to the frozen north.
  15. nvck
    In the CSU d8 ML forecast we trust
  16. nvck
    Ensemble support as well for a *potential* severe outbreak in the SE and S Ohio River Valley. Will obviously have to watch how this evolves, but seeing SCP values this high 200+ hours out on the gefs is surprising
  17. nvck
    Pressure bottomed out in the low 980s, after a pretty steep plunge this am. precip on the day around 3/4", and upper 40s feel incredible
  18. nvck
    6z gfs (and 00z euro) both want to run back another sub-980 low late next week, with more svr possible in the south
  19. nvck
    But I didn't think the leapords would eat *my* face!
  20. nvck
    not in our bit of the country, but it's pretty wild that we can issue outlooks 7 days out, that have a decent chance of verifying.
  21. nvck
    Absolutely incredible day in store here, 10am and it's already up to 42 which feels like the 50s after the past few weeks. W/ the sunny skies and a nice SW breeze I'm thinking we top 50. Could not be more excited
  22. nvck
    I definitely haven't, only been to Lake Huron and mostly central/southern Lower. Yeah, lots of math w/ the MET major, after calc 2 comes diff eq/linear algebra, and then calc 3 after that. supposedly calc 2 is the hardest, which I'm really hoping is true.
  23. nvck
    No, the farthest north I've been in MI is Tawas City last March (which didn't have any snow at the time), but I'd like to go up to that area at some point if I can ever get some free time. met major classes are no joke, especially calc 2
  24. nvck
    18z NAM didn't really back down, although it is a pretty significant outlier with this far north of a track
  25. nvck
    Yeah, foot otg is looking very unlikely with the depressing 12z runs. I've not measured, but maybe 6" rn? Again, that's a very rough estimate
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