nvck
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Everything posted by nvck
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Pretty sunny and 73 on the southwest side of lansing
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Charlotte, mi, sorry, SW of Lansing. I think there is a Charlotte near circleville tho
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Heading down to Charlotte area to chase
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From the day4 portion of the days 4-8 outlook
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keep in mind that this is a composite of all hazards but still, looking like another big day in the area.
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Not so sure about this one...
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At a glance, 00z hrrr looks like an uptrend in terms of morning convection decreasing around the IN/KY/OH area and a little bit more destabilization
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Probably thread worthy given the huge d3 enhanced covering a lot of the southern sub, and the slight risk all the way into MI. Interesting that the SPC keeps mentioning the significant hail probs as almost the primary risk with this event. Just rare to see this far east I feel.
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2025 Short Range Severe Weather Discussion
nvck replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I can start a thread for Sunday tomorrow if it looks to continue the uptrend around the area. Saw a gif of the GFS actually trending towards the ukmet solution which is concerning -
It's the chatbot on Twitter ("x"), https://x.com/i/grok. Not sure if it's accessible without an account, but in my experience it's pretty similar skillwise to deepseek/chatgpt, although I haven't used it to do analysis on data like that.
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Something to watch for next weekend
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Incredible amount of lightning with these storms as well
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This is insane, and just the sheer number of pds warnings so far is wild
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MDT got even bigger on the latest D1 outlook
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Wow
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HREF with a UH bullseye around and north of STL tonight.
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https://x.com/CameronJNixon/status/1900567103628857486 excellent thread by cameron nixon on why this storm mode may be more supportive of long-track tors than a purely supercellular one IMO, this could be cause enough for a high risk at 1630z
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Looks as though the lead shortwave that was supposed to "scrub out" some moisture from south and limit northwards moisture advection for friday isn't as strong as forecast
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NAM3k sounding from SC IL (Mt. Vernon area) for late Friday night
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cincinnati area saturday afternoon
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Saturday looking bigger than Friday for both the northern and southern modes
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Is it worth starting another thread for what looks to be a 2day severe weather event? Expecting that both of these risks will be expanded northwards
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Lock it in! I'm expecting 0.5" of rain on Saturday, with a few rumbles of thunder
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Looks as though the first trough next week isn't going to be as strong as was thought earlier, and therefore the next (much more potent system) has more moisture to work with farther north. Also, depending on the timing the trough progression, I could see Saturday also being a decent severe wx day in the eastern bit of the sub, and into the midatlantic
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https://x.com/ItzRoch11/status/1898430186380484745?t=k9tcfmbrBPZkv892UlEblg&s=19 Someone ran a WRF model on GFS initial conditions for Friday. Take with (many) grains of salt, but still interesting
