nvck

I think the decision to pull the trigger on a day3 MDT was at least partially supported by Broyles et al. findings in the OMEGA project, which found that jet streak translation speeds >40kt are associated with higher-end tornado events. Doing some rough math, from the 6z NAM, it looks like at 6z monday the core of the 500mb jet is over eastern NM, and by 6z Tuesday it's not as obvious where the core of the jet is, but it appears to be somewhere around the northern shore of Lake Superior. This would suggest a translation speed of around 49kts, well above the threshold mentioned in the paper. The SPC also mentions the jet translation speed in the outlook: A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday. I could be wrong, but this is my best guess as to why they went moderate today instead of pulling the trigger tomorrow Here's the paper if you're interested: https://prod-west-spc.woc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf

Figure it's probably time to start a thread for what looks to be a 2-day severe weather event across the region. CSU (per usual) is pretty aggressive with it's probabilities, but is outlining much of the same area as the SPC has. It's looking like all severe modes are possible on both Monday and Tuesday, and Tuesday has been uptrending over the past couple days, so I'd expect higher probs coming from the SPC.

This should probably have a thread for it soon, maybe including 4/29's 15% as well

Haven't dug into this super closely, but next monday looks active in the sub

Honestly, this winter was probably a B or B+ for me, we had a few nice events up here, but I don't have much of a baseline to compare it to. The real saving grace was being back in cincinnati over winter break, and catching that 11" storm in January, that was pretty incredible, and then a smaller 4" storm with great rates later that week, before heading back to school.

you can keep your variety north of the 45th parallel! its time for 50s and 60s!

If you're in the western (ish) portion of the you've got a decent chance at seeing the northern lights tonight, sadly I think it'll be too cloudy here.

we don't need any more of this

some of you should like this:

days 5 & 6 looking to get more active once again

cloud cover overnight really limited the cool down, and we're looking at another day with a high in the upper 50s. absolutely incredible.

Same areas that saw snow last week?

lets come back to this in a couple months

no snow here last night, but a mid-30s, overcast, drizzly day, on par with most of spring so far. clouds did clear some a little bit ago and we're in the low 40s, but I can't wait for some 50s!

Yeah I'm super excited! was a fairly competitive selection process here, so i'm glad i got in, and it'll be cool to do legit fieldwork

may 15- the end of june. If the weather's looking dead then we might leave a week or so early, but the scheduled end date is june 28 i believe

not sure how many of you know about the ICECHIP hail research project this summer - a hail study led by CMU & NIU, with like 20 other orgs involved. I'll be going out to the front range/central plains for like 6 weeks this summer working on it. There's this website: http://icechip.niu.edu if you want to learn more, or feel free to ask me any questions, super excited about it

what a long night, insane wind gusts in IN/OH, with a 100mph report from the Muncie area. was posting warnings until like 2am for all the little 3 frame spin-ups in the wilmington area

lol yeah, I'm looking forward to some 50s and 60s later this month, before I head back south for the summer (I know, the wrong direction )

Heavy sleet with some thunder and gusty winds on my walk to class this morning. Why the hell did I come here?

tor-driven, and I was surprised that they didn't go 45% for wind.

Moderate issued for Evansville - Little Rock area along the Ohio & Mississippi Rivers

Would be exactly 1 year from this:

Big swath of 75kt+ winds at 850mb early thursday AM on the latest HRRR, over western ohio. I'm thinking a moderate is coming at 1:30, probably for both wind and tor potential.

Pretty sunny and 73 on the southwest side of lansing