nvck

80/70 probs on the new watch

HRRR over-mixing bias on display once again, latest run undershoots dew points by several degrees across my area, with obs in the colored labels. 13z RRFS seems to have a much better handle on moisture, although it's under-doing SBCAPE by 750-1000J/kg, per mesoanalysis

he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them

don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line

Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection

looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids

Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here.

Record low slp

06z RRFS suggests that this may be more of a Thursday event for us, blowing up a cell right over the metro by midday. will be interesting to see what the 12z suite thinks, but I could see the d4 risk being shifted back west some

gonna go ahead and call a miss north/west here, and will hopefully be proven wrong

More of a march/april look here than anything else, but loving the shear profile

hoping we get some more of an east trend, am pretty tired of getting 2am weakening MCSs, would at least like to see some lightning in the daytime

Looking like another impactful stretch of weather coming up, with Wednesday, as of now, having the highest ceiling. StormNet, CSU-MLP, and other ML products have all had very "hot" runs lately, pretty eyecatching stuff, especially as the northern bound of the highest prob area is over the same area that saw several tornadoes on Thursday. The GEFS has been consistent in showing an area of high P[SCP>1] over portions of Missouri and Illinois, even back into Kansas, for multiple runs now, while other models expand the risk further east towards Ohio. Regardless, very strong flow for this time of the year will overlap an area of ample moisture. Should be an interesting couple days.

Wednesday (Thursday to a lesser extent) looks thread-worthy, might get one going in a bit unless anyone else wants to jump on it

Eyeing next weds for a severe threat here in IL/IN/OH, longwave trough moving into the region, should be a great shear profile. funnily enough, biggest question IMO is how far east the best instability makes it.

2 tors likely otg SW of grand rapids

Tor for naperville

MKE terminal doppler looked pretty telling for a brief tor, will try and get a framegrab

https://x.com/Kentucky_WX/status/2065192083921543679?s=20

insane pics coming out of that cell... will be interesting to see how it reacts to these mergers

agreed, wish it wasn't in such a radar hole, but very impressive mid-level meso eta: warned now!

some MCV magic it looks like in eastern MI today, quite a few tor warnings

interested in the june 15-17 timeframe for a few days of highs potentially in the mid-70s. ensembles have been trending towards a nice respite from the heat/humidity