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nvck

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Everything posted by nvck

  1. nvck
    New hrrr has the whole LP engulfed in smoke by tonight, and most of Ohio by tomorrow morning.
  2. nvck
    Mt Pleasant at 100, Oscoda County at 104, models definitely had a good handle on the placement of the hottest temps being northeast central MI
  3. nvck
    90/69 at the cmu wx station now, maybe signs of dews starting to mix lower? Ticked down over the last half hour, need to see that pick up for a run at 100
  4. nvck
    102 in thunder bay, 59 across the lake... nature's AC
  5. nvck
    this video is from vietnam, but there was, incredibly, another strong tornado in china a few days ago https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cq61d22ved2o
  6. nvck
    81/78/89 at 8:30am... No thanks
  7. nvck
    90/80 imby is tough, air is just so thick. station might be running a bit warm/moist, but another PWS a couple blocks away is showing 93/81.
  8. nvck
    don't really buy the slight risk being pushed into Ohio tomorrow, ample shear but MLCAPE will likely be below 300j/kg. like wednesday's event on a budget.
  9. nvck
    just had the wettest 2-day stretch on record at the municipal airport here, and those 5.51" came in a ~18 hour span.
  10. nvck
    oh for sure, the imagery from TCVG was insane nonetheless with that storm that went through florence
  11. nvck
    risk definitely verified around here
  12. nvck
    i think that southern one will stay south of 275, but the northern one could potentially impact the metro
  13. nvck
    even with the consistent stratiform stuff here, thinking it could be a busy next few hours, given whats unfolded to my west
  14. nvck
    80/70 probs on the new watch
  15. nvck
    HRRR over-mixing bias on display once again, latest run undershoots dew points by several degrees across my area, with obs in the colored labels. 13z RRFS seems to have a much better handle on moisture, although it's under-doing SBCAPE by 750-1000J/kg, per mesoanalysis
  16. nvck
    he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them
  17. nvck
    don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line
  18. nvck
    Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection
  19. nvck
    Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection
  20. nvck
    looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids
  21. nvck
    Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here.
  22. nvck
    Record low slp
  23. nvck
    06z RRFS suggests that this may be more of a Thursday event for us, blowing up a cell right over the metro by midday. will be interesting to see what the 12z suite thinks, but I could see the d4 risk being shifted back west some
  24. nvck
    gonna go ahead and call a miss north/west here, and will hopefully be proven wrong
  25. nvck
    More of a march/april look here than anything else, but loving the shear profile
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