Bob Chill

Just let Ma Nature do her thing. There is no doubt a good looking period being advertised. One of the best we've seen in January for a long time. Never any guarantees but at least it looks like a multiple chance window. We usually need those. Oh, and take a nice long look at the analog list and let your imagination have some fun.

It will never get old. NEVER. I (all of us) didn't ask to be born like this so the best thing to do is embrace it. I'm not sure which chromosome is responsible for weenieism but there definitely is one. It's a wiring thing for sure

1/3: 5.5" 1/7: 4.0" Total: 9.5"

Last night confirmed it. We're on our first heater since Feb/Mar 2015. You should invest in getting your shovels tuned up

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

The favorite part of my semi-retirement here is not caring about that stuff any more. I've seen enough over the last 15 years. Everything is a repeat to me in many ways so it's much easier to barely look until it's "real". Real is subjective but for me it doesn't exist outside of 3-4 days tops unless it's a big dog. Once a common type of storm makes it into the meso model runs and it looks good enough, that's when my gears shift now. This allowed me to significantly appreciate the 2 events we just had. No stress. No fuss. But both overperformed in their own ways for my yard. What a treat.

Winter wx here is perplexing. I'm starting to no longer care about anything in the Fall. Even enso. I mean sure, mod Nino ftw but for whatever reason, our good winter periods are compressed and busy and they can happen in any year. Odds favor certain years but I've seen enough counter moves over the last 15 years to temper any and all expectations of anything beyond a couple weeks. Eta: important addition to my post... big storm setups are different and they are the holy grail of why we do this. Good setups can be easy to identify weeks or even a month in advance. I'll track TF out of every single one from long range. Beyond that I'm officially in chips fall mode prob forever

My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific.

I love this link. Use it all the time to corroborate. I was sound asleep during the heaviest and woke up a bit late after wind kicked up. Got a bunch of measurements between 3.8 - 4.3. I'll go with 4". Right in the pocket of all surrounding obs. 9.5" in a week in mid Jan with decent temps is rare AF and I very much appreciate the anomaly.

Now we're talkin

They got sick of reading this thread and called it off. I keep telling people they have to be nice to wx models and mother nature or else but they just don't listen...

When the fighting over digital snow is over, the event will be over and people will be like "ah man! Missed it!"

EPS or GEFS are prob best left undiscussed this close in. I'm not sure if there's any value with a low res ens spread when mesos and ops all look mostly the same. Not saying the maps shouldn't be posted. Just that there really isn't much to be gained from them at this point

It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig

This hobby is the anti-thesis of free time efficiency. That's the core reason I backed off. I was spending a disproportionate amount of time doing something pretty much unproductive. My time has become more valuable than a d5+ storm on an op. I only start doing the analysis thing inside of 72 hours. I barely looked at models yesterday too. I just popped in here from time to time to make sure it was still on the table. Yesterday's model runs don't mean jack squat today anyways

The only thing I really care about is not having to deal with the ragged jagged precip shield and never getting any good lift overhead. The one thing that's keeping my confidence in a couple inches at least is the shortwave isn't dry. It's loaded up with pac moisture streaming from the jet from the pac nw thru the central rockies and into the TN Valley. Often these shortwaves have only moisture from Canada and can't tap anything. Those are tough on the nerves. I may end up in a relative min but I don't think it will be less than 2" (famous last words)

Exactly. Expectations for models are at an all time high but we're still many years away from the level of detail and accuracy that many want put faith in today. Like you, I just create a data equation in my head with weighting on what I think makes the most sense, then double check previous similar events to get a handle on boom/bust for my specific yard. Even doing this for what... 25 years (15 intensely for me), the element of surprise in any direction is always present. I suppose that's what makes it so fun... and maddening... and evil... all at the same time

Globals are too broad brush for narrowly defined sensible wx in the short range. Euro has the resolution but it's still a global. OTOH- mesos try to be "too accurate" with exact placement of subtle variations of qpf/bands etc. I know you know this but just reminding everyone that all decent models are useful in the short range but no one model is deadly. Just blend and apply climo. Rarely fails.

Hrrr could be right. Looks just like a typical outcome for this kind of deal. At least it's kinda juicy leading in. Sometimes these shortwaves are dry AF to our SW and we wait for radar to "blossom"... my least favorite activity with NS systems. Thing is, these types of storms, no matter how many models show otherwise, have the potential to do exactly what the hrrr shows in real time. I have a good memory. And they aren't good memories for my yard. I'm not a deb, neg Nance, or wet blanket. If we really respect this hobby as a learning experience, accepting the possibility of the hrrr solution should be second nature. I can easily see "the middle" getting over 4" or just 1". Won't know until it's over

That's why I like kuchera. Comparison to the mundane 10:1 can provide some really good insight into a lot of small details that affect our ratios. Any time kuchera is over 10:1, it's a very useful indication of good snow growth, good column, and good surface. You need all 3 to exceed 10:1 here usually. When kuchera has high totals but surface is running the razor edge with temps, I'll toss it. Same with some sort of warm nose anywhere near the DGZ. High ratio killer even if kuchera says don't worry. Like all wx model output, useful tools galore but if you don't understand how to properly use them, being useful flips to harmful with decision making.

If someone doesn't hug the model with the most snow while waiting impatiently for a better one, I simply can't trust them.

GFS handles northern stream the best so it must be a lock. Boom.

Just got a text alert from LWX issuing a bitter weenie storm warning and I was like Wut? So I popped in here and was pretty obvious why.

The one thing that typically annoys TF out of me with these shortwaves is radar usually looks killer to the west leading in. Then wxwxluvr has 2" of snow b4 I get a flake. The precip moves into my area and it's all ragged and jagged. You're get mod snow during this time. Then your's shuts off with a respectable total and the SE kicks in while I get table scraps. I always expect the lowest qpf on these deals. Keeps me grounded

Unfortunately, this is how these storms often break for my yard so pretty reasonable outcome. You generally always do better in da burg thanjust west of 95 burbs. Every once in a blue the enhanced stripe to the east helps me out but more often than not... outside looking in with best totals on these deals