Bob Chill

If this late week deal doesn't remind you of how we scored bread and butter in JF 2014 or FM 2015.... you didnt live here or you were down in Avanti's basement eating cheetos

I've been suspecting it but now I'm growing convinced Dak doesn't have the hardwired mental wherewithal to win in a pressure cooker. There are a lot of cases of VERY capable QBs who simply brain fart when it matters most. Cousins is like that. I thought it might just be living in redskin hell but MN didn't fix it. I can go on and on with examples. Complete opposite of the laser focused gunslingers like Rodgers or Brady or (insert many great names) who can back into the playoffs and take over and carry entire teams. What does this mean? It means I'm a big Dak fan because as long as he's in charge, cowboys ain't going too far when it matters most.

I'm going to be sappy here just for one second.... dude, seeing your yard near the top for close suburban snowfall IN THE MIDDLE OF WINTER AFTER MULTIPLE EVENTS is a straight up treat. Seriously. All that said... GTF off my lawn and stop stealing my snow or I'm bringing the bobcat and trailer in the middle of the night. Just like I was going to do to wnwxluvr back in 2012-13. I never should have turned around and went home at Front Royal that night... Still regret it.

Otoh... I only jump into this game when it's ripe now. When you see my stupid avatar popping up you don't need models for the mid range. When I go totally dark and you still look at ops... I can't help that

Don't know 'bout y'alls but I'm starting to grow tired of weekly snowstorms. We need to bump that up to 2. Thanks NAM!

At this particular range it matters more than usual. The control starts off with identical data as the op and runs at Ensemble resolution. Inside of 6 days or so, the control can be more accurate than the op... caveat.... at times... Is this one of those times? Beep bop boop don't know. However, it should absolutely not disregarded because it's "the control". All good data matters

He was talking about our hopes and dreams.

Hit 3". Perfect. Enjoyable storm. Considering the flaws it performed well. This winter has a habit of that lately.

2.5" and 25F. This is becoming one of my favorite mixed events. 3"+ lookin easy. I was nice to wx models and ma nature all week too.

I can corroborate heavy yellow snow around my lamppost at the end of my driveway

Once my weenie conceded to a sleet bomb, I ended up loving that storm. Top spot for yard glacier events. The next one down isn't in the same universe.

Man it's kinda dumping. Legit cold smoke. What a gift

Yea, I haven't liked the sleet progression on this one for 4 days. Lol. DC proper about to get smizzidysmizzoked

Prob both. Snow NW and sleet SE.The battleground usually has the heaviest snow.

Looks like sleet starting to show on CC north of RIC on lwx radar. Dox radar shows it from Cambridge to Solomons. The fight will be on soon.

DOX CC looks like the sleet line runs from Cambridge west to Cove Point.

2003 2010 2016....its time As long as continental airmasses keep dropping down from Canada and the trough axis keeps wobbling back and forth to the east and west of us, it's possible to get a big storm. The ingredients are constantly flying around near each other. If they are going to line up, ops will figure it out D4 or less. Beyond that is all shotgun blasts from guidance. I'm a big believer in streaks or compressed favorable periods around here. There's def some truth to "it just wants to snow" when we get hot. Enso and any other thing doesn't seem to matter at that point. Sure looks like that's what's going on this year. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Mine is thru the first week of Feb minimum.

A big storm is suspect with the general upper level pattern. It can happen but only when hitting on all cylinders (like Feb 2014). Euro/cmc have shown a path but there's no way they could lock into that this far out in a progressive patten. I know you know this up and down. But there are still plentiful peeps here who expect ops to lock into any and every big storm from a week out. It can easily snow next weekend but prob not the way the euro/cmc are showing. Any shortwave passing 1-2 days or more after a front can be something... or nothing.... Still feel pretty strongly that any event thru this month will be modest if we get another. Like 6-10" tops or something like that but 3-6/4-8 type totals fit the upper levels from what I see.

When is the last time we had a 985mb slp pass directly overhead? I have a really nice old school baro on the wall. I usually try to mark the unusual low pressures. Right now the marking needle is pointing 29.22 (around 990mbs) and I don't even remember when I moved it last.

For MBY, this storm feels like an unexpected bonus check. I never really got seriously invested because these types of deals absolutely LOVE to slip away. It did start doing that yesterday but felt really good this AM when I checked all the data. Imho (subjective topic) this storm is 3 for 3 for my yard. All 3 did pretty much everything they could to ensure I got "acceptable" outcomes. This has been a very friendly period. Could continue easily too. We are a persistence wx location

Looks like peeps to the SW either hit "their bar" or overperformed. Will that trait with this storm suddenly vanish on our doorstep? Doubt it. My wild ass guess call 2 days ago was 3-4". Started doubting it but still feel good. Me thinks you hit double digits before the curtains close at 5k'.

The potential next weekend reminds me an awful lot of how we got multiple ok storms in JF 2014. A few of those strong waves running boundaries were modeled ok pretty far in advance. The progressive nature of the flow will jump things around by default but we're seeing a little bit of consistency show up 6 days out. Today's storm was well modeled that far in advance. We'll see

It is pretty comical in not the funniest way that we can't start threads far in advance. I mean the avg age here has to be in the upper 30s at least. But we simply can't have a clean and focused discussion about a possible wx event 4-5+ days in advance. Instead, because our area has always been and will always be dicey with storms, the storm threads become devoid of good analysis and unreadable every 6-12 hours. The pile-on party of despair and bad posts phenomena is an unstoppable snowball.

Pro weenie tip with COD radar. When WAA snow approaches from the S or SW, always watch the triangle shaped radar shadow pointing SW. When that fills in with greens pretty much simultaneously as the unobscured area around it, there typically won't be much virga at onset. Good thing to know if you don't already.