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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is an average +15 day lag late February to March, so that 10mb warming would favor -NAO conditions (about 2/3 times) March 5-15.. maybe longer if the graph says longer, but it just had +zonal wind in the long range a few days ago, now it's opposite, so we'll see. In mid-late March the downwell time on average +10 days. This 10mb warming is what usually happens in Strong El Nino/Strong -QBO Winter's.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the runs were more suppressed before when models had more +PNA and -NAO. The +PNA has -0.3 correlation to precip, and -NAO has -0.4 correlation to precip, so you're right about that, but they both have +low pressure on the coast-correlation. I was hoping for a blizzard lol
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the blocking signal looks kind of pathetic now on models.. models trended less +pna and less -nao in the last few days. Still has them dont get me wrong, but it looks like a "moderate" cold air situation.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    PNA will be spiking, so the later we can hold that energy back, the better. Sometimes models at this range trend toward giving space between 2 waves.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z NAM hangs more energy back, for the later part of the wave, vs 18z gfs https://ibb.co/Fz5q7rH
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Would be our first long-term -NAO in a long time.. (probably since 09-10).
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder if the block will stop when the SOI moderates (It's in the -30's/-40's now). The subsurface ENSO has neutralized, and I found, all things neutral, for that to be the biggest correlator to the pattern.. even a negative tendency now in the subsurface, so I would guess this favorable pattern lasts as long as we can keep the SOI negative.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a big change in 5 days! Strong El Nino/-QBO has a very high correlation with Stratosphere warming, so I was actually surprised when models were showing a strong 10mb PV end to the year (the historical percentage is about 75-80% for the DJFM to have 10mb warming/cooling when the two indexes are together and strong)
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really turns into a +PNA/-AO in the LR.. agrees with the current SOI coming in <-40, and MJO I think too. See how there is a Stratosphere lag: https://ibb.co/wgsNTP6
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    +AMO appears to still be peaking. On the monthly dataset, it maxed out in September 2022 at +0.643 (#2 was 0.5), then all last Spring and Summer last year there were record warm SSTs in the central-Atlantic Ocean. My guess is it would still rise for a few years to come. I think since the late '90s, TC's have hit the EC at like 60%, while the average # of storms has increased by 180%.. interesting.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I still love this setup. https://ibb.co/DQV7q8D
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Chance of precip.. everywhere. https://ibb.co/VYrvdv4
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    CAD https://ibb.co/Mf3SVtp
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would love for this to phase. https://ibb.co/PMjcvP6
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take this setup right now. Nice strong High pressure and moisture going up into the Midwest https://ibb.co/Tt9FYnp
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pacific looks awesome for this event. This is one that needs to bomb and become a 50/50 low to set us up for a really favorable period around PD.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    There was always snow cover when I was a kid. We also used to get a lot of flurries storms, and numerous 1-3, 2-4". I think a lot of the millennium kids don't really know that. It also used to be much windier in the Wintertime. You're right about the pattern.. it is awesome, but the globe has been saturated with High pressure lately so we'll have to see if that ever breaks.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm not going to keep saying the -NAO needs to ease up for us to get a storm.. have some faith. I don't want one of those storms where it melts fast anyway. The STJ is active right now.. All we need is one of these to time right with the cold air.. I'd rather the block hold its strong tendency through early March, than lift out and give us a storm. But recent runs have started to weaken -NAO in the 16 day today, yeah.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think La Nina's are a product of global warming. In the '80s and '90s there was a lot of stuff about how the SE, US would be the only place not really effected too much because +PDO/El Nino was correlated at the time to be a global warming variable.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    They are getting crushed in LA! https://ibb.co/vZ9gpKw
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    6.37" expected in LA https://ibb.co/vZ9gpKw
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    The problem is this big N. Pacific High pressure, which is not a product of global warming https://ibb.co/xSDVk08 Actually, it's a product of La Nina https://ibb.co/kmN2YXs But it was hypothesized in the '90s that El Nino's would be more common than La Nina's in global warming, but since the AMO went + in 1995 we have had 15 La Nina's and 9 El Nino's.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    We seem to be moving away from a Nino pretty rapidly https://ibb.co/wYVVgQD
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    +Heights over AK is even better! But that W. Pacific High is starting to encroach on latest guidance.. do you worry about that suffocating the +PNA low? It has been a trend of the last 7 years, especially in February..
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    These big gaps mid-Winter are like "meh" I am ready for Spring. It will be kind of annoying to have a lot of snow that melts in 2-3 days.. then is in like the 50s. Or 45 that feels like 60 lol December-mid Jan snows are so much better
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