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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's a decadal La Nina-state. You are calling it -PDO, but the same extent of Pacific High pressure has hit the Hadley-mid latitude Cell in the southern hemisphere as the northern hemisphere.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    We did get 3 Stratosphere warmings. When there isn't much data, it helps to know what the main function of a thing is. The QBO/ENSO hits the 10mb level with stronger or weaker vortex, and it's a strong effect historically. We hit that effect this year, but things like Hadley Cell expansion and the multi-year La Nina state did not allow us to fully maximize that favorable system.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_cloud Big observable visual differences in the last few decades. Just pay attention. Cumulus is a sign of the lower atmosphere holding more ice crystals.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look out the window. The clouds are beautiful. I see purples, with pinks from the sun, fluffy low-atmosphere cumulus. They started appearing more frequently in 2021-2022 and really have been around every day with clouds (Summer too) for the last 2 years. No one has noticed? They are much different from the clouds in the sky every day several years ago. Kind of the same as how storms used to climb 40,000-50,000 ft in the atmosphere in the 1990s, but now they mostly make it to 15,000-20,000 ft. And everyone just blankly says its climate change. The recent happenings (cloud formation) are more conducive of a +PNA, I guess (more pressure systems)?
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    The clouds have been A LOT fluffier. low atmosphere cumulus. They are out now, they have been out just about every day with clouds for the last 2 years. That's a sign of near-ground ice crystals. But 2013-mid 2018 was really bad on the opposite side of this, all high atmosphere cirrus and stratus, so it takes time to change the long term state imo.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    With a +QBO 90% likely, no less. That with Stronger La Nina favors +AO conditions, and I'm just saying the last time we had that happen it hit 80 degrees in January.. that's kind of a baseline, although of course it could get cooler/colder at times.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    La Nina is not a function of climate change, and that is what the problem recently has been. https://ibb.co/34tJQXn
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Models adjusted more than usual. They had a ridiculous strong 50/50 low signal at 10-13 day lead, that is now a High pressure anomaly on models for the same time. There was also a big N. Pacific Low that was suppose to develop and sustain, and it's pretty weak now. I've seen what happens a lot, is when the upper latitudes don't match what the models show in the CONUS (they never really showed big cold/trough over the EC), something, somewhere will adjust (lately it's been adjusting warm). Euro weeklies have been very little better than trash. I continue to stand by that.. they got January wrong by 4-5 degrees, and now the same thing is happening in late February and March. The LR images brooklynwx kept posting, through March 20th, are going to come to nowhere close to verifying, especially over the Pacific Ocean! NG futures (where the money is) was 5x more accurate all Winter long.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I ended up with less than 1". Really bad call saying that WSW's would go up, up here based on the RAP and Hrr consistently giving 4-6". It wasn't really cold enough in the end, and the precip under achieved a little (here).
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Signs that it could get very warm in the last few days of the month.. maybe 60s https://ibb.co/YBPYLdV
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    GFS and NAM had it in their snow depth charts.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Snow picking up here.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cooled down nicely here in the last few minutes.. snow starting to land. 31F
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    eh.. we'll see how the backend does, but this seems like a bust.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't like that the dryslot is north of Rockville!
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, started changing over just when I posted that.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    That is a nasty dryslot working into DC. Still all rain in Fallston. Temperature says 33 degrees. Edit: just started to mix in with snow.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah but the Pacific dominates Only a 0.3 correlation in the South-SE, and it's technically all 3 areas. I'd rather just go to the source..
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, 00z and 01z has trended a little weaker at 500mb.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    eh.. it's warmer at 11hrs.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z NAM does have the low a little north of 18z at 5hrs.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO subsurface is showing a -3c pocket now in the central region at -200m. In my research/experience, that has a pretty high correlation to the N. Pacific pattern at 0-time (backs the -PNA idea). Plus we are in some strong multi-year states with that 500mb feature in Feb/March.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    The main region for PNA is in the N. Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian islands.. Both, or all 3 images shown so far had a ridge there (-PNA). I don't call what's happening over alaska or gulf of alaska, pna, although the CPC does include that.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's 18z GEFS.. just a crazy ridge south of the Aleutian Islands https://ibb.co/9Wycxzf Here's something I posted a few ago, https://ibb.co/ZgvkXCY With a Strong El Nino at the surface, and negative in the subsurface, and now +250dm -PNA appearing, it hits this +correlation, which I have found is better than surface conditions. That's a really warm pattern setting up there on the LR GEFS with the EPO going + too..
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Sometimes when the mathematical variability is so strong, it's worth considering. Ideally, weather forecasting should outperform Energy Futures because you would think we have better methods.. they are speculating. but that's not been the case for a while. I'm really surprised that the global models just had El Nino-climo, when we have had such a strong -PNA for the last 6 years, and the El Nino was not correlating with it April-Oct. With that strong 24th -PNA I just showed in the previous post, it looks like we may come in near neutral in the PNA region for February, which is in line with this record streak that we are in.. But the global models had like a -120dm to -150dm +PNA for the month.. just normal ENSO climo.
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