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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    This air temp correlation is actually high for something that is not over-lapping. Negative PDO is opposite of this map (but both phases are considered in the composite)
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    More on how the Winter PNA correlates with the PDO the further into the year you go
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    More on how the Winter PNA correlates with the PDO the further into the year you go This air temp correlation is actually high for something that is not overlapping.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah.. I was under my 5th severe warning of the year.. nothing close to severe so far. 2x it barely even rained. I think Baltimore does a little better with storms than I do, a few degrees in temp apparently makes a difference. This year it's ended up being more rain up here than lightning..
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say that all the analogs from 16-17 on have 2x the weight of one's before it. Recent, non-strong ENSO probably 3x (18-19, 19-20, 22-23, 24-25)
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    More data is always better.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Science and education are two things you need an organized body for... you can cut the rest. They seem to be doing the opposite.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think Gawx has done research correlating the Solar cycle with ENSO states. I think he found out that there might be a few year lag for highest correlation.. he posted it in ENSO threads in previous years (or maybe I am thinking of the NAO). Thanks for the solar data by the way, that is actually really hard to find!
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    2003-2022 was definitely a low sunspot time, lowest 20-year period since before the 1900s I think. It may have something to do with the higher than average La Nina frequency during that time. This cycle was a big shift up. I'm actually surprised that the numbers aren't higher because of how many times the Aurora moved towards the tropics.. I don't think that has ever happened before.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PDO is intensifying and could come in around -3 for July if there are no major changes. We average about 3 more named storms/yr in the Atlantic in -PDO vs +PDO. It also favors a pattern in the last Summer/Fall that supports more Gulf of Mexico landfalls.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will be interesting to see if we see a change in the Pacific pattern over the next 1-2 years. Solar cycle +12 months Solar cycle +24 months I do think there is higher likelihood for El Nino in 26-27 and/or 27-28
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good thing it's not Winter.. this is quite a streak of bad indices: June will be the 5th month in a row with +NAO 4th straight month of +AO 4th straight month of -PNA The roll forward-combined of these three over a 4-month period looks like this for the following Winter (DJFM) (colored is 53-55% probability): And now June will be the 9th straight month of +SOI.. this tells me that the atmosphere is not in a state of major change. Recent analogs could be better ones going forward.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are really going -PDO If this keeps up, the July monthly may come close to -3! The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Only the 2nd time Chicago has ever had 3 straight lows 78+ in June, the other time being 1931. The ridge ended up effecting northern parts of the US more relative to average, which makes sense because it's +NAO driven, and wavelengths are shorter in the Summer, making the highest correlated area to the north.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'd be surprised if we were at record low levels, the warm season so far has been very +NAO/+AO
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's looking more and more likely that June will be the 9th straight +SOI month.. impressive for Neutral per ONI 24 Jun 2025 1017.08 1013.00 19.61 3.83 3.14 23 Jun 2025 1017.04 1013.25 17.57 3.71 3.03 22 Jun 2025 1016.71 1013.45 13.85 3.91 2.95
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since 1995, Atlantic tropics have very often produced a storm before July 1: 24/30 years (80%) had a Tropical Storm before July 1 27/30 years (90%) had a Tropical Depression before July 1
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO will probably approach -3 monthly again
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The further into the Summer you go, the stronger the Jan-Feb PNA correlation is to PDO
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good stuff. If that's the Indian Ocean anomalies during the Fall we can expect higher probability for a +WPO Winter
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at this -PDO taking shape
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    The correlation is surprisingly weak, given that it's a 4-5 month consecutive period. I always though there was more correlation with earlier in the year indexes begetting later patterns. Here's the correlation for the following Winter: +NAO (positive correlation) +AO (positive correlation) -PNA (negative correlation) Combined they look like this for following Winter US Temps.. colored is like 53-55% probability
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    This was a bust.. Heating Oil went from $2.48 to $2.26 in the 5-day projection period.. 9% drop. I was expecting something in the other direction.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Powerful heatwave headed for Europe too, as the strong +NAO spins out over the next few days.. 5940dm tropical jet makes it to Paris, France.
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