Stormchaserchuck1

eh.. it's phasing into this I don't like the threat anymore. Just for cold rain. By a lot actually, (Just like PHL covering -2.5)

That's a pretty horrible look on the 6z GFS ensemble. After this 72hr storm, it's warm, warm.

-PNA signal in March.. doubt we get any snow

You guys are weard.. GFS will show snow or ice at 00z.

That's actually a lot of moisture running into cold air.. my guess would be ice in future runs. +PNA signal starts Feb 5th.. will probably coincide with +NAO

I found no STJ correlation but there was a strong PNA correlation at 0-time.. fwiw

Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). (You can also look at the pressure pattern that happened in Winter 87-88, in reverse, when the subsurface was total cold (<-5F) During El Nino (SouthUS-High Pressure)(as the best analog match).)

Theory getting blown out of water?

Now we have really strong +NAO in February I was surprised because the roll forward composite (+NAO) was greater than my pick-and-choose analogs

I mean this verbatim, is pretty horrible lol

Man.. can someone approve my posts? Not really worth it to post on this board anymore. Also because WXUSAF doesn't like to approve posts that have real $$value in forecasting.

Love a low in the GOA, or that spot.

You guys should know a +PNA Is coming for Feb 7-21. Saying it will likely be nuetral-to+NAO gives us these analogs for the time period: (since 1948) 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1979, 1980 1980, 1981, 1982, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2015, 2016, 2021 ^ analogs vs other analog match's suggest not such an easy +NAO.. maybe -NAO possibility for Feb7-21 (How did we do snow-wise? anyone that knows)

Nasty -EPO, I wouldn't be suprised if it's 2 ice storms in future runs. In reality, we always need the -PNA to shake.

Man, I would bet the line PHL -2.5 x a lot

I don't want the 12z gfs ensembles look to go anywhere! Here's the cold that you guys have been talking about: And my continuum theory that in this time the cold has to correlate with +NAO, especially to get meaningful snow. Maybe if we get a Strong El Nino next year, it would break the ~10 year trend.

Ice storms are very common in -EPO's/-WP's (1-27 to 2/6) Here's what we have coming Jan 27th - Feb 2(-epo) Feb 2-7 (-wpo) (reverse this map v, map is opposite correlation of above) And believe it or not, I like +NAO for snow more than -NAO, at this time. (v+NAO composite)

The -PNA developing at 12z GFS ensembles at 384hr will probably not verify. That is what is probably our cold window/time (Feb 7-21) Dec -NAO/wetter than average is heavily followed by +NAO February (stronger signal than -NAO's that I was looking for!), so we will have to contend that with that perhaps.

Will be interesting to see if the El Nino holds, if we have a -PNA March....

' We may have to "build to" an east coast event, start Feb 5, 7-8, then maybe Feb 10-13 we'll get a snowstorm. I would actually like the NAO to stay positive.

Still have to shake this -PNA tendency. I say ~Feb7-8-> we start getting hit.

I think we will have a window around Feb 7-21 for wintery conditions. The year started off with a colder than normal Russia/Siberia. Flagstaff and that area has now seen 3 snowstorm hits, and Japan according to this is about to get record cold (such an extreme anomaly doesn't usually happen there). The theme continues to be 35-50N, with 45N more consistent for cold/shots. It hasn't hit the Mid Atlantic yet, but it has hit 3 other areas around the same latitude this year. (I made a note of this before)

Mathematical validity. I like scientific theory, but sometimes the unknown manifests in anomaly. Thanks for approving. Thanks. Models are trending that way. It would verify as a pattern change. Feb (5th)~7/8 -21 +PNA is the call right now

Can someone approve these?

More CAD, stronger storm (Moderator review doesn't work with this kind of stuff. )