Back in the 70's and 80's a 3 inch snowstorm was a big deal..Believe me the climate between 02-18 was not NYC snow climate..Again it's not this bad..but 20 inches a year is common.
66-67.95-96, and 10-11 were La Nina winters.As long as their not strong we can do fine..I'd rather have a strong La Nina then strong el nino..Strong el nino's are the worst..no cold air and strong pacific jet. However they are known for that one big snowstorm usually in late Jan or february.Example 83 and 16.
If the 360hr ensemble forecast is correct..it can still snow with that look in Januray..although a trough in the west there is really no se ridge to speak of, unlike last year. I think it snows here the first half of January.
Early January doesn't to me seemed challenged for snow...Looks like normal to a little bit below temps ..all you need is a SW..I don't know why that wouldn't work for this time of year.
If your looking for a solid medium forecast looks like day 5-7 are solid now. Thats a big change from 20 years ago. 7-12 day forecasts on the ensembles can show the right pattern but details are hard .12-16 days forecast even on the ensemles can be inaccurate. And the weeklies especailly after week 3 are not good.But it sure beats the 70's when 3 day forecasts were inaccurate.
That was a BIG eevent. Lived on the south shore in Western Suffolk at the time. Now out in the country of Central PA..might see a wind gust of 30 if lucky. Be safe,guys!