WX-PA

We might get a few inches Sunday night. At least in this forum we aren't cancelling winter like they are on the NYC metro forum.. It's getting nasty over there..man

December 65,,no snow mild,December 72, no snow mild, December 82, no snow mild,December 86, no snow mild, December 97, no snow mild, December 2015, no snow.mild. There are your strong nino Decembers in the last 60 years. Plain and simple.

You see this is the problem with this forum. Bluewave is vey smart but does have a warm bias. Posting red maps over and over again doesn't mean it's not going to snow anymore. LOL..It's a December strong nino..they all turn out mild and snowless.No big surprise here.Maybe we'll see something in January, February and March.

Yea this snow drought is one of the worst on record. And I saw many in the 70's 80's and 90's.

So obviously your expecting a shutout for December..warm Christmas ect..we are used to that. Any hope for January and February as you see now?

7 and 8 are warm in +enso..Any cold phases?

I always believed this. if you like winter weather in the east stay away from storng nino's..Everyone is pissy warm. Yes you do get your shot at a big snowstorm but if you miss that chance iyou could get shutout. Just too much pacific air..maybe this one will be different.

Great research Don..we are doomed lol

I don't think this looks torchy but who knows

I see a trough in the east. It's better than having a ridge there. I think you can snow with that look but who knows.

December 77 NYC had 0,4 inches of snow...The rest of the winter was one of the best.

That would be nice..we were close to it is 97 snowed a few days after Christmas... Strong nino years do favor Jan and Feb for snow and some are blizzards like 66,83 and 16..we'll see!

Alright here's the deal..We have a strong nino in December. I've been through them 65,72,82,86,97,15..It snowed once in December..the middle of the month in 82 we had 3 inches but Christmas was 60...It was 58 degrees Christmas day in 1965 and 65 on Christmas day 2015.I know the odds are against any snow this December or a white Christmas..Just trying to be optomistic that maybe we can sneak something in maybe the last week because of the MJO progression..If we don't no big deal. Just trying to be hopeful that this strong Nino will produce in December.

So I guess it will never snow again. and its December 2015 all over again, Can we try for 80 on Christmas? Pacific air..you will never see phase 8 in your lifetime!,.cold dumped into the west Just trying to be as negative as eveybody else on the forum. How am I doing?..ho ho ho

There was no favorable mjo phase last year in was 4-6 with an insane -PNA..Not the case this year.

Actually if you remember it did snow a few days after Christmas in 97..it was a dusting, I dont know if that counts..The rest of the winter was a disaster until March when got our first and only snowfall.

We ALL need mental help on these boards.

Big drop in Enso 1 and 2..By March we will be negative..setting up for a La Nina next summer and fall

Yea for the next week or so sure. I think the second half of the month will produce snow here as the Pacific improves with cold MJO phases. Listen you may be right, strong Nino in December usually means warm and snowless..However very rare to have a negative NAO with enso +2 in December.

For a day or so..not for a week..And what December doesn't have temps in the 50's for a few days?

Again if it was a postitive NAO with this strong el nino in December of course I would punt..And if the second half of the month showed MJO in phase 3-6..sure that's warm stuff....Euro weeklies look great for the last week or so of December into January..Again they could reverse tomorrow.nobody knows but to call December a warm month with no snow at this point is foolish like you are seeing on the NYC forum.

MJO half of the month we are in the warm phases which you see phase 3-6..the second half of the month MJO is going into cold phases 7-8, Showing there is some hope for around the holidays. Plus NAO is negative even in the warm phases so it wont be a blowtorch

The reason you don't punt December like most of the board is doing.

That's a normal December here unless I'm color blind.

Looking at the next few weeks it looks basically normal through mid month. I don't see this blowtorch that some are posting about. And this is no 2015 or 1997