78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.
78Blizzard replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
Can I put my order in now for a 3-4" qpf 25°F blizzard this winter? -
I would think that Ida should rank right up there as far as the length of time a hurricane has maintained winds of 100 mph or greater after official landfall. Ida did make landfall in the swampland and marshy areas that would help maintain the winds and storm structure, but just saying.
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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
78Blizzard replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
12z gfs has dews mostly in the 40s and 50s over the next two weeks after midweek. -
August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
78Blizzard replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Looks like Ida is going to scour out the extreme dews going forward. Probably would have happened anyway as we go into September. -
12 mb pressure fall in last 6 hours, yet despite that rapid deepening the winds remain at 105 mph over that 6 hour period. I know there is usually a lag between the pressure fall and increased wind speed, but this makes little sense. Is it possible that the hunter planes may be missing where the strongest winds are?
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The 0z 3k Nam has it bombing to 897 MB by hr 57. That is Cat 5 easily. The setup is very similar to that of Hurricane Camille in 1969, which formed near the Cayman Islands, crossed extreme W Cuba and made landfall on the LA/MS border. Lowest pressure was 900 MB, and winds were estimated at 200 mph after all instruments were blown away.
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HWRF shows Cat 3-4 for Louisiana. It was the most accurate on Henri for most of its life. Euro shows up to 17 inches of rain in 24 hrs in south central TN.
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At 11 pm Henri was at 38.6N 71.0W, or precisely where the HWRF had it on their 18z run. Since this model has been the most accurate at every measuring point as was mentioned earlier, I would put the landfall in Newport, RI as the HWRF shows.
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Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop.
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3k Nam @ hr 51 had pressure of 915 mb. That is pressure you usually find in cat 4-5. Won't happen.
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6-7" qpf for se MA
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Whoever ends up E of the center will have the worst of it, especially on the south coast.
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I understand that the snow in northern Maine remained on the ground until the following Spring.
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No consistency in these hurricane models. The 18z HMON now has a cat 1 @ hr 84 and is further northeast and will pass just E of ACK as a weaker TS. The 18z HWRF is now a much weaker system and is a strong TS @ hr 84.
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12z HWRF has a cat 3-4 about 300 mi south of the cape @ hr 90 but which then rapidly weakens before coming ashore in LI and CT. The HMON has a very weak TS or even a depression @hr 90. Quite a variance in those two hurricane models.
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The NAM is showing once again why it is generally useless beyond 24 hours.
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The rains have hit Augusta, suspending play there.
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72°F here now. High 73°. First 70° of the season. Don't expect another one until possibly near the end of the month.
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Yeah, the GFS @ day 6-7 has 30" of snow for parts of central ME on the fantasy snow maps. And it has another 30" for the remainder of the run, lol. 57°F here now. Max was 58°.
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It seems that this winter the models have shown us that at 7 days out a snowstorm has about a 10% chance of verifying, while at 7 days out a rainstorm has about a 90% chance of verifying.
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The Euro has 2-4"+ of qpf over the 6 state region the next 10 days, so drought hysterics are a bit premature if that verifies. And we are just going into the seasonal time for spring rains.
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This is to be expected. Some on here told us we would pay for this nice March weather.
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This is shocking, too:
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Careful with those adjectives...Tip has scolded for using "massive".
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This will be a good first test of how the new GFS performs at day 5. Granted it is only one run, but just saying.
