78Blizzard
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Everything posted by 78Blizzard
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It seemed to have the right idea in the mid range, but lost it in the short range. -
Nice, but an outlier from what we have seen thus far.
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Based on the mesos thus far they will have to take those 1-2" amounts on the cape up quite a bit.
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More than doubled the qpf from 18z here.
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I think the Euro will tic even further west at 0z.
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RAP quite bullish BOS on south thru the Cape with a BM track.
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I think the mid 30's will be when the storm departs.
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I think the TV mets may be underestimating the amounts for the Cape. In some scenarios they could be the jack.
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I have that same gut feeling that some positive surprises lay ahead.
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3k gives me .82 qpf vs 12k's .24. That's quite a big difference between the two.
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Getting close to a year for coastal CT peeps...
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Yet their discussion said "an advisory level event is the most likely scenario."
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I'll go with the RGEM, which has been the most consistent with this system. It gives my hood .45 for the 6 hrs ending 18z and .13 for the 6 hrs ending 0z.
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So it's American models that are the outliers now.
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Didn't he say he was more concerned about p-type issues than a whiff, without mentioning specific areas?
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Every model is entitled to a burp run.
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Like the steadfastness of the RGEM and its track, which I've said all along would be between ACK and the BM.
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Half of that qpf is from tomorrow's rains.
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When the Euro ticks further west from 18z, some will wonder what all the fuss was about with the NAM, a lousy model.
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That's assuming the NAM is considered a major model. I don't.
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So do I. But that wasn't what was asked.
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I know all that. I was talking about the energy being transferred.
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Look at it this way. How often has the NAM been right at this point in time vs the Euro? Easy decision.
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The problem looked to be that convection off NC forming another low further out.
