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78Blizzard

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Everything posted by 78Blizzard

  1. 78Blizzard
    Just going by the 12z Euro:
  2. 78Blizzard
    Midwest and south later this week 10-20°F BN, while we bake 10-15°F AN. What's with the heat island up here?
  3. 78Blizzard
    18z GEFS maintains that ridge out west from d9-d15, and then relaxes it to more of a zonal flow near the end of the run. But 850s stay in single digits here with most days BN.
  4. 78Blizzard
    EPS and GEFS @ hr 240 are almost copies of each other - far different than the Euro op.
  5. 78Blizzard
    Make it 3 or 4.....
  6. 78Blizzard
    GFS remains the outlier as far as cooler temps down the road. Euro, Canadian warmer.
  7. 78Blizzard
    Quite the change for us at h5 in the long range on the GFS from 12z to 18z. October looks to be coming in quite BN for at least the first few days.
  8. 78Blizzard
    0z Nam ticks N.
  9. 78Blizzard
    Can I put my order in now for a 3-4" qpf 25°F blizzard this winter?
  10. 78Blizzard
    I would think that Ida should rank right up there as far as the length of time a hurricane has maintained winds of 100 mph or greater after official landfall. Ida did make landfall in the swampland and marshy areas that would help maintain the winds and storm structure, but just saying.
  11. 78Blizzard
    12z gfs has dews mostly in the 40s and 50s over the next two weeks after midweek.
  12. 78Blizzard
    Looks like Ida is going to scour out the extreme dews going forward. Probably would have happened anyway as we go into September.
  13. 78Blizzard
    12 mb pressure fall in last 6 hours, yet despite that rapid deepening the winds remain at 105 mph over that 6 hour period. I know there is usually a lag between the pressure fall and increased wind speed, but this makes little sense. Is it possible that the hunter planes may be missing where the strongest winds are?
  14. 78Blizzard
    The 0z 3k Nam has it bombing to 897 MB by hr 57. That is Cat 5 easily. The setup is very similar to that of Hurricane Camille in 1969, which formed near the Cayman Islands, crossed extreme W Cuba and made landfall on the LA/MS border. Lowest pressure was 900 MB, and winds were estimated at 200 mph after all instruments were blown away.
  15. 78Blizzard
    HWRF shows Cat 3-4 for Louisiana. It was the most accurate on Henri for most of its life. Euro shows up to 17 inches of rain in 24 hrs in south central TN.
  16. 78Blizzard
    At 11 pm Henri was at 38.6N 71.0W, or precisely where the HWRF had it on their 18z run. Since this model has been the most accurate at every measuring point as was mentioned earlier, I would put the landfall in Newport, RI as the HWRF shows.
  17. 78Blizzard
    Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop.
  18. 78Blizzard
    3k Nam @ hr 51 had pressure of 915 mb. That is pressure you usually find in cat 4-5. Won't happen.
  19. 78Blizzard
    6-7" qpf for se MA
  20. 78Blizzard
    Whoever ends up E of the center will have the worst of it, especially on the south coast.
  21. 78Blizzard
    I understand that the snow in northern Maine remained on the ground until the following Spring.
  22. 78Blizzard
    No consistency in these hurricane models. The 18z HMON now has a cat 1 @ hr 84 and is further northeast and will pass just E of ACK as a weaker TS. The 18z HWRF is now a much weaker system and is a strong TS @ hr 84.
  23. 78Blizzard
    12z HWRF has a cat 3-4 about 300 mi south of the cape @ hr 90 but which then rapidly weakens before coming ashore in LI and CT. The HMON has a very weak TS or even a depression @hr 90. Quite a variance in those two hurricane models.
  24. 78Blizzard
    The NAM is showing once again why it is generally useless beyond 24 hours.
  25. 78Blizzard
    The rains have hit Augusta, suspending play there.
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