SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Decent chance we stay in the teens on Saturday
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Lol it barely snowed in the 80s
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Not great if the strong winds verify.
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I doubt it stays there very long. This is not 2011/12 where it's parked all winter. The pessimism is a little much. If it's a ratter then so be it but declaring winter over when it barely started is silly imo.
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Yeah the impact this time will be significantly worse than their previous lake effect storm. It's much colder, winds will be ferocious and there's even lake flooding expected.
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I think that's ridiculously premature to declare. Most of our snow comes from a couple storms which is very possible Jan 15 - March 30. We'll know by mid Jan what the future might bring and if it looks shitty with no improvement in sight then I'll give it to you.
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Despite the very cold anomalies coming, I actually think the warm anomalies for Dec 30 - Jan 10 will be even greater. I think one or two days could even make a run at 70+
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I think most places will gust to 45-50mph fairly easily & frequently But higher localized gusts up to 60 mph are also possible probably near the coast and ahead of the arctic front. That could be a problem given 1-3" of rain could fall ahead of the winds. We even have Flood Watches up. Models also hint at flash freezes with moisture still present as temps quickly dive below freezing.
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We should see more muted drops here but could definitely see a 15-20F drop over 20-30 minutes.
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We're looking at most of this forum seeing an inch or less of snow through mid Jan by the looks of it. Some dire futility records despite a -4 AO this month. I'm feeling 2012-2013 vibes though and there's a strong possibility that blocking will return 2nd half of winter. Hell in this climate we could see nothing til Feb and still score 35-40" with a couple storms.
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Yeah I think Jan 1-10 is likely skunked but we'll probably flip again. This has been a very variable fall/winter already with a colder October to very mild November to likely BN Dec now back to AN. I'm prob done with the tracking, the models and the forums after Dec 27. Will come back Jan 15 to hopefully better news.
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You're not worried about the coupled Nina? The ensembles from end of Dec to beginning of Jan are out of the strong Nina playbook
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We'd likely need convection to overcome the inversion though. I think many will see gusts up to 50 regardless by Friday
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Nam has a weak secondary or meso low ahead of the arctic front for Thursday night. It really enhances the winds ahead of the system. And then they'll be another bout of winds with the arctic front itself.
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I would get tired of the feet of snowfall too. It's cool to see every now and then but eventually it would just get obnoxious
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I don't understand why this is so hard to grasp. The climate change deniers come up with 100s of useless excuses when the most obvious answer stares them in the face.
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Time to move to Buffalo
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Many of our recent winter months have already resembled DC/VA. I think the changes may happen a lot faster than people expect. I predict NYC's average annual snowfall for the 2020-2030 period will be below 20"
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It's very unlikely. Weeklies also show more troughiness 2nd half of Jan. Even with a record warm 1st half of November we only managed a +3-3.5 for the month so very warm weather has to hold all month like in Dec 2015.
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I think that's gonna plummet this decade. The warming initially led to more precip where even warm winters could yield AN snow but as warming continues it'll just lead to more rain vs snow events. It's also causing a feedback loop with warmer oceans leading to warmer/inland storms.
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If the whole month is warm then it's doable. Take a +12-14 first half and still average +5 or better 2nd half and there ya go. However I'm not convinced we'll even go that high and/or stay mild all month. I think a +4 monthly is much more reasonable
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That's a wild temperature drop. I wouldn't be surprised if the starting point was a little higher (upper 50s). Warm sectors can really overperform in temps. A 40F drop looks likely for many with some seeing 45+ drops over a 12-18hr period.
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Nam also has some pretty hefty totals (3+) just further west They also suggest single digits are very possible just outside the city.
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960s in the lakes is not run of the mill
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Pretty impressive cold for Xmas weekend. If we had snow cover it'd likely be in the single digits
