SnoSki14

I have a bad feeling it'll be another crappy spring. Worst case is if we see a SSW event in late Feb or early March.

West ticks seem probable given strong SE Canada ridging If the trough axis wasn't so far east this probably would've been a good storm for most

You pretty much need that here for any condition, not just Ninas. Btw this year has behaved more like a strong Nino than a Nina. You don't typically see days of flooding rains in southern California during a Nina.

Anytime models hint at SE ridging it's a major concern. It just has to verify stronger than forecast, very easy to do, and welcome to cutter land. Occasionally you can get multiple cutters that force the boundary east and then eventually the last shortwave in the series can be a coastal that brings snow.

Another 23 days should be easy to do. Nothing on the horizon for the next 2 weeks

GEFS with a big step backwards. Strong WAR in place aka cutters galore. GEPS is more promising. Either way there's not much to look forward to for a long time, prob late Jan at the earliest.

Watch it be a repeat of December with a big wound up cutter in the Midwest and another Arctic blast. Don't underestimate the ridging east of New England. Very warm sea anomalies in that region

It depends if there's a light at the end. There's a flicker right now. So far there's been zero measurable snow in my area, north-central NJ or NYC. Even the worst winters had something by now. Looking at ensembles there's not much hope until the last week of Jan.

There's nothing on the horizon though. Pretty much nil til late Jan

I'll believe it when I see it. I'd be happy if we just torched the rest of the way instead of following false threats and promises.

GEFS has a WAR throughout the entire run. EPS looks pretty cooked as well though better than GEFS

Remember when things were supposed to turn around after the 10th Can kicked yet again Boy who cried wolf syndrome in full effect

Just go mild and 9 out of 10 times you won't lose

Don't they average like 150-200" though.

Can we see the warmest January on record?

You know it's bad when you have to go to 2 week ensembles and they still aren't that good

Places south did really well in 72/73 too

Looking at the 10-14 forecast and it's mid-late March weather in mid January. Wild to look at. We'll prob need another mega warm push (60-70F) to get record warmest January but it's definitely in the cards.

The warm winter has helped Europe a lot with their demand problems and it'll help us too this month. Once you accept that it'll be a mild/snow-free winter it becomes kinda nice. Lots of positives. Only wish there was less rain

There's no cold anywhere on the Euro. It's like a strong Nino, very bizarre. It would be horrible even for ski regions which are suffering big time

Big rainstorm. 50/50 gets out of the way and east of NE ridging becomes too strong again. Same ole crap It actually cuts off too so that would be a flooding rainstorm and coastal nightmare. Jesus christ that's like 6"+ of rain and widespread hurricane gusts well inland

It's just a lag really. Takes a while to warm the oceans, which is why even if we had net zero emissions tomorrow things would continue warming for decades. Usually there's several years of warming to hit a new baseline and then it levels off for a bit or may even go down in lieu of other factors like in the 70s. Then the process repeats. Note that the leveling off period is what climate skeptics always mention. They talked about it in the 70s and 00s. The skeptics will also return if/when we do get net zero emissions and the planet continues warming. They refuse to acknowledge the lag.

The data checks out. That's when temps started rising, I don't think it's a coincidence. I think if we set futility records this year like zero snowfall in NYC then that would be a pretty big wake-up call.

Ensembles and weeklies look horrendous after mid Jan. 2001-2002, 19/20 & 11/12 type warmth. Top 3-5 warmest Jan looking likely

Maybe punt winter too. Pattern looks horrible after mid Jan