SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I have higher confidence in a late season event. There's support for a favorable late winter period.
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Yeah that's usually a good sign but I wouldn't bet on a favorable outcome south of NNE. It does appear that there could be one more favorable period between Feb 20 and March 15. CFS weeklies show it. MJO trying to move into more favorable phases by then as well. The seasonal transition periods are always interesting too, can really shake up a stale pattern
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Yup. Boston is pushing 50 by tomorrow which is crazy given this mornings reading
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To be fair they've been mostly right with the warmth this year. One or two really cold days can't take away from how warm its been.
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Still 12F in Somerset. Rare to see most of Long Island so much colder in a CAA regime
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??? Not in our area. Below zero weather was fairly rare even back then
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I've heard at some point it gets so cold that it feels like you're on fire. Guessing below -100 WCs
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Cold is much more tolerable than heat. At least you can always layer up
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That's how we get these insane short term temperature swings Cold is nothing out of the ordinary. 15/1 right now with forecast of 8. Meh. 50+ nearly every day starting Sunday
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Climate change denialists are having a field day on Twitter over one really cold day It could be 70F every day in January but 1 cold day is enough to bring them out
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What does that feel like
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More BS from the GFS We spring starting Sunday. If there's any more snow it'll happen in the Feb 25-March 15 period.
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No it's possible it's just that it'll be a drop in the bucket compared to the record warm weather. If the orientation was different than subzero temps would've came further south.
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GEFS is still pretty mild. A muted version of the EPS
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Idk the EPS is looking extremely mild. I would still go +7
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?
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JB thought that would happen in the 2010s, instead we had the fastest warming decade on record There's nothing to suggest a cooling cycle. Net emissions are still rising, waters warming rapidly. Our baseline will increase with the next big Nino event possibly near 1.5C
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LA & Vegas are gonna be colder than us Not even joking. We'll be pushing 60+ while they stay in the 50s or colder
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It's coming
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I don't think MJO is that relevant tbh. We were in the cold phases in January and it didn't matter. It's usually only relevant when there's constructive interference
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A good cutter in 2nd half of Feb could really push things near 80F again However active Pacific jet makes things very progressive so I don't think we'll see that. January managed to torch with a high baseline rather than days of 60s & 70s.
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We haven't had a cold summer in over a decade so that ain't happening. And just because winter has been a torch doesn't mean spring will be cold. We could easily roll this torch into the spring/summer like 2012 Btw does anyone have March-May temperature departures after a warm Jan/Feb particularly years when Jan/Feb were +2 or greater over the last 10-15 years
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There's a chance at something around the 10-11th before it goes super torch
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Perfect alignment of unfavorable MJO and Nina forcing Despite that models point to sneaky cold/snow around the 10-11th. Afterwards we pretty much roast until late Feb.
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March could easily average colder than this Jan/Feb if it's just slightly BN
