SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Ensembles looked pretty good to me. It can take time for snows to show after the big AO drop. The lag time ranges from a week to over a month. In 2010 we had to wait til after Christmas for our big storm.
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It's closer to a SWFE/Miller B than a cutter. At least northern parts of the area still have a shot at snow.
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Idk if that will hold. Models have had a tendency to dump the trough out west first, a common Nina theme. They're doing that after the Friday storm now when they had ridging out west in earlier runs.
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Some take it under 5. Now that's extremely rare territory if it happens. It would be shocking if this pattern didn't eventually produce
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This pattern + Nino would bring an infinitely better result. I'm done with the Ninas...kill them with fire.
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So far this is the most disappointing blocking pattern I've ever seen. Euro & GFS now shove a big trough west after the 16th storm which is not good. That's been the theme too with models underestimating the western trough due to the RNA pattern. I wonder if we'll have to wait until 2nd half of winter now when we can get away with a bad pacific.
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Probably the most important indicator for December in our region especially in a Nina
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I'd say odds are better than usual for positive trends
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It's not out of the question that things could trend more favorably given blocking in place. We are still 4 days away.
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Probably Christmas week that'll be in the cards. We hit a rare -4 or lower AO which only happens in the snowiest of winters.
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It was always after mid December where the best pattern would begin. Anything before that was a bonus
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GEFS look phenomenal after the Friday storm
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Yeah I thought maybe we'd luck out on the 16th but that primary has always been a stickler and not even a strong block will be enough. Things look great beyond it with plenty of cold air coming down and a favorable blocking pattern. A really good few weeks likely
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I thought maybe the primary would keep trending south but that wasn't the case. So the wait continues.
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That's very possible. The primary was always an issue and the 50/50 ain't great.
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Very unique setup. Can't remember seeing many storms like this.
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The primary being so far north to start is the problem but its been trending south over time. But like you said lots of time for changes. GFS on an island right now.
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Feeling more confident about a miller B transfer off Delmarva. Surface temps a bit iffy for immediate coast but still good.
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The GFS went from a deep trough to ridge in one run. The GFS is garbage
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GFS imo is completely mishandling the ULL in the Atlantic. CMC/Euro have been far more consistent. CMC would be really nice for everyone
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Even regular Nam starting to pick up on the norlun signal
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The Arctic blocking is strong but the NAO isn't and it will be weakening gradually. This is not as extreme as 2010
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I'm pretty confident we'll see a near benchmark track. The only concern is how far north the primary starts off. That's also the reason why I think we can rule out suppression. Also the trend is your friend
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Euro still tucks, GFS shreds so take the middle solution I'm thinking it's gonna be a miller B with secondary off Delmarva. Coastal huggers are very unlikely in a strong blocking pattern.
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If every model showed a bullseye today that would concern people. Frankly I'm glad there's a suppressed solution mixed in with the inland tracks
