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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Not surprised to see models back off the torch for the northeast to start Feb. MJO 6/7 is not warm for us in a Nino for Feb. 7 is actually a colder signal. Still think we average slightly above normal but no 60s & 70s like some thought. Even 50s may be difficult
  2. SnoSki14
    Airmass is very poor. You'd need a strong dynamic system to pull in colder air. Maybe a rain/snow mix towards the end, no accumulation
  3. SnoSki14
    Oh wow a few barely below normal months against the warmest 30 year averages vs an infinite number of top 5-10 warmest months over past decade You really got us with that one.
  4. SnoSki14
    We're just slowly roasting in that pot until it's too late
  5. SnoSki14
    Euro is overdoing it. I don't see a strong cutter that will generate this kind of warmth. GFS will win out imo
  6. SnoSki14
    What a dreary week coming up.
  7. SnoSki14
    Works for me. If it's not going to snow I prefer mild weather. Unfortunately it looks like we'll have some rain/clouds with it though. GFS does keep us on the colder side of the gradient though
  8. SnoSki14
    We'll get opportunities for sure. I still think we could get at least one KU style storm a la 82/83 this winter. Watching end of Jan with that PNA spike and then mid Feb with Nino climo + potential blocking setting up. +PNA should be transient but ensembles have been trending more amplified with it which should cause more cold air in the east. March is a wild card but could be active.
  9. SnoSki14
    Significant PNA spike to end January prior to a warmer pattern. I could see a storm there.
  10. SnoSki14
    I'm not sure. I actually think models could waffle quite rapidly over next few days. MJO wreaking havoc at the moment.
  11. SnoSki14
    This is not a typical Nino response. We might get skunked again
  12. SnoSki14
    So everything is closed for an inch of snow lol. How embarrassing Models trending south and drier.
  13. SnoSki14
    Ratios would have to be like 1:20 or greater based on what models show. It's bizarre and I'm seeing schools shutting down left & right already.
  14. SnoSki14
    Where are they getting these forecasts from. Models don't show more than 3" across the entire area. I would go with 1-3" area wide with local spots further south at 2-4"
  15. SnoSki14
    Phase 6/7 +ENSO is not that warm for us. It's no surprise how muted the warmup looks on the GFS. A lot of eastern Canada highs scooting east, even leaves open ice threats around here.
  16. SnoSki14
    MJO is concerning regarding February. Hopefully they're being too slow with it again. MJO 7 is better than 6 which is why EPS looks a lot better than GEFS right now. I do think February will still be good but the best could hold off until week 2-3. March could also be unusually snowy & active too. A lot of central/east strong Ninos has snows late. And in the -PDO era March looks better as wavelengths change.
  17. SnoSki14
    High ratio snows.
  18. SnoSki14
    We used to get teens for highs
  19. SnoSki14
    It would be nice to score another 2-4" event
  20. SnoSki14
    So how's that Mid-Atlantic snowstorm coming along? And we don't live high up. Surface temps will be a lot colder than you think.
  21. SnoSki14
    This storm is definitely happening because we're torching not long afterwards.
  22. SnoSki14
    Much stronger event likely Friday. This is like an appetizer
  23. SnoSki14
    To sum things up we get 2 snow events coming up followed by a warm-up as MJO swings through warm phases and then we get a classic Nino February. February will rock imo.
  24. SnoSki14
    El Ninos winters don't start til February.
  25. SnoSki14
    How are you missing the complete pattern shift out west. Look what happens after the warm up.
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