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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Too far north to get into the rains but too far south to escape the clouds
  2. SnoSki14
    Correct so if it happens to be near normal, that's still much warmer than a decade ago.
  3. SnoSki14
    It's ramping up now. Large CDO structure developing and wrapping around
  4. SnoSki14
    Given how fast it'll be moving north tomorrow, there's going to be some very strong winds on the east side. Tremendous surge potential even if it doesn't get stronger than a Cat 2.
  5. SnoSki14
    This is not going to rapidly intensify, it's far too big. I doubt it'll be much stronger than 100-105mph.
  6. SnoSki14
    This could be more impactful than the strong Cat 4-5 hits as of late. It's all about the size when it comes to tropical systems and this one is huge.
  7. SnoSki14
    Given its size it'll be tough to get much stronger. I'm skeptical it'll even get that strong. Maybe more Ike like
  8. SnoSki14
    Blanket statements like that mean nothing.
  9. SnoSki14
    Models wildly shifting run to run in under 4 days. No consistency whatsoever
  10. SnoSki14
    Since it's been so dry it probably means we'll get like 20" of rain in a 2-3 day timeframe
  11. SnoSki14
    It has another low developing, not sure I buy it. New GFS has gotten wetter. A very difficult pattern to forecast
  12. SnoSki14
    Unless a full scale pattern change occurs, aka PDO flips, it will always be disappointing. The only hope is for brief mismatch intervals.
  13. SnoSki14
    GFS got much wetter
  14. SnoSki14
    We might onshore flow our way into a near normal month.
  15. SnoSki14
    Need the high to trend a bit weaker to avoid suppression
  16. SnoSki14
    Yes persistence forecasting has made the guy look like a genius but there's very little nuance in his posts. Lots of biased takes pulled from Twitter too. JB looked like a genius too in the snowy 2000s & 2010s Era. He's just anti JB at this point. Bluewave and rain do a much better job explaining the rationale behind the warm winters.
  17. SnoSki14
    Are you surprised he's saying this. It's -PDO, Nina, +NAO/AO, +EPO/WPO, MJO 4-6, etc. Every negative signal you can think of that will cause a snowless, blowtorch winter for the east with this guy. Wash - rinse - repeat. There's zero nuance.
  18. SnoSki14
    Yeah I'll buy whatever he's selling, dude's been killing it for years now.
  19. SnoSki14
    I totally buy the tropical development off the east coast. Strong high to the north allows for a system to spin underneath. High moves east and storm impacts coast. Where and what kind of impacts remain to be seen. New GFS is following the Euro though
  20. SnoSki14
    Lower sun angle too. Looks ideal for late summer beach season.
  21. SnoSki14
    Probably November honestly. Our endless summer begins.
  22. SnoSki14
    I hope so, that would open us up to some tropical activity
  23. SnoSki14
    Maybe some homebrew tropical activity next week?
  24. SnoSki14
    The greatest heights look north along with warmest departures. I could see a lower high, high min pattern for 2nd half of September
  25. SnoSki14
    You're more likely to see a tornado warning at this rate
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