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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    HRRR is pretty useless beyond 6-12hrs That being said it already shows many parts of NJ at a foot by early afternoon. There will likely be a band that drops 2-4" in an hour.
  2. SnoSki14
    Definitely colder & snowier than I expected thus far. Hopefully the rest of the storm overperforms.
  3. SnoSki14
    I'm approaching 2" as well near Middlesex/Somerset border. Oddly enough that fits the para gfs jackpot with peak from NW NJ NE PA down to C/NJ.
  4. SnoSki14
    Either this model is completely nuts or it's about to score a huge victory.
  5. SnoSki14
    This or maybe even a touch south is where I think the jackpot will be.
  6. SnoSki14
    I'm not convinced the heaviest totals will be north & west of NYC. Very cold/dry over there and temps have been very cold down to C/NJ. Euro/GFS are further south with jackpot zone. So I have an inkling jackpot will be near or just south of I-78. I'm also basing this off the current overrunning snows which are targeting C/NJ.
  7. SnoSki14
    Yes they do but sometimes it's warranted. This was clearly not progged to be an ordinary storm. Several mets picked up on this over a week ago. That being said I won't count my chickens yet.
  8. SnoSki14
    You don't say. You mean those crazy analogs people were throwing out 2 days ago that this was definitely not going to hit.
  9. SnoSki14
    Everything is covered even the side streets. Close to an inch already on the grass. Very light snow atm.
  10. SnoSki14
    Ridiculous if correct. That's a blizzard. No wonder Nam's spewing out near 30" totals.
  11. SnoSki14
    This is why I stopped watching local news.
  12. SnoSki14
    Yeah it looks like a half inch at least.
  13. SnoSki14
    The MJO isn't the end all be all. It's currently in phase 6 and we're getting a blizzard.
  14. SnoSki14
    I'd take that it gives me 20+
  15. SnoSki14
    Looks really good.
  16. SnoSki14
    There will be a tick east. It's already coming in and temps are colder than forecast. I like where the GEFS have this thing.
  17. SnoSki14
    First flurries already.
  18. SnoSki14
    Ukmet finally joins the party.
  19. SnoSki14
    Pretty good alignment between this and regular GFS. Para going the colder route, which is interesting given the Gfs is always the colder one.
  20. SnoSki14
    Quite a bit colder too. Not surprised as temps will likely come below forecast. The cold air will be tough to shake and low will probably end up slightly east of models.
  21. SnoSki14
    Rgem has a tendency to overamplify things. I think given the depth of the cold and precip the coastal front will be further east. Will be keeping an eye on the dry slot though.
  22. SnoSki14
    After the 12z suite I think I'm good with model watching outside of the very short term HRRR. 12"+ looks like a lock even under a worst case scenario. Forecast looks good with 13-18". Will be the biggest storm since 2016 for me.
  23. SnoSki14
    Just keep in mind the HRRR is basically useless beyond 12hrs
  24. SnoSki14
    Big upside to this one, let's hope for that last minute Miller B east push.
  25. SnoSki14
    NYC is iffy with the mixing. Heaviest amounts will likely be just N&W of the city. Regardless they should easily get up to a foot or more.
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