SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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So far I'm seeing a bunch of pretty maps and no results. We'll see what happens in a few weeks. I continue to believe the boundary ends up further north. Great pattern for SNE points north.
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Watch us end up in a screw zone with earlier systems targeting SNE & north and mid Feb systems favoring southern areas due to TPV suppression. That's kind of what the Euro shows
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There's definitely some promising developments but we need to see actual hits. Day 10+ maps are pretty to look at but we need results. So focus on one system at a time. Looking to see if we can score anything tonight and then midweek.
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GEFS with much stronger Arctic blocking The window is after next weekend if anything is going to happen of consequence
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CMC on the other hand is looking better. We'll see which way the Euro trends.
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Oh it will don't worry. Zero expectations this month. GFS OP looking less favorable already too
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Looks like a lot of slop before a potentially more favorable snow window in mid Feb. Euro with the passage into MJO 8 shows why it's better with the blocking
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Yeah it actually doesn't look cold/dry once blocking gets going. It would still be nice to score something before mid Feb though
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It ends with massive arctic and Greenland blocking sending arctic air into the US lol
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I think this system is a good test for the following one. Let's see if the TPV causes a more southern press than currently depicted. If it does then the 9th would likely trend in that direction.
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Would be nice if the GFS had a clue.
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So March 2018 coming up?
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Euro does have an over amplification bias so I do think it'll trend somewhat towards the other models
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The Euro/EPS is not the king it used to be though so there's that but not having it show much isn't good either
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Take that to the bank I have zero expectations rest of winter. Any snow would be a pleasant surprise imo
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Looks like a little clipper for tomorrow. Probable snow showers at least
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Then there's the Icon that screws everyone over
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What a weenie GFS OP run. Straight out of JBs basement There's 5 or 6 threats on that run.
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This is a dream snowy pattern for SNE/CNE. Very 07-08 like. Enjoy
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From the most obvious source. Don't understand why. I could see a snow/sleet to rain scenario for sure. Ultimately I favor the boundary to end up in SNE though.
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Had the cold air been as extensive as it was 25+ years ago we probably could've had another 94 on our hands this month.
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And unfortunately any blocking is too far out on the ensembles right now. Personally think this is a SNE north gradient pattern. Think 08 though maybe a tad further south but time will tell
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That's true but underestimate the SE ridge at your own peril. A little blocking would do wonders for us right now.
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It's all about that boundary. Right now it favors SNE and north
