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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. Absolute blowtorch for the entire CONUS on EPS. Gives me hope for Jan/Feb though. We are no longer following typical ENSO climo anymore.
  2. I wouldn't discount a more amped up storm still 3+ days out given rocket fuel ssts to our east.
  3. We've seen models amp up time and time again as we get closer so I wouldn't discount this potential.
  4. A rare time when an unfavorable pattern could help us out. But it could also get sheared out.
  5. Trending towards a very weak system. Not sure if they'll be too much with this but it's better than nothing.
  6. Maybe a blowtorch December like 2015 will lead to a monstrous snowstorm in Jan. The waters are gonna be like rocket fuel , That's been one of the themes following a massive torch. We saw it after the 80F Feb reading as well.
  7. It's a blowtorch pattern. Not Nina climo whatsoever which gives me hope for Jan-March. The last mega December torch led to Jan 2016. That being said you can't compare 2015 to now either. If blocking doesn't materialize then it'll probably end up like 2011-2012, a strong analog this year. And I'm good with that honestly. A nice mild, dry winter ain't bad at all. Just hope it doesn't eff up spring and we get March like weather next 5-6 months.
  8. I don't see us torching like that either because Canada still looks very cold and the fast flow will prevent big cutters. So it'll probably be more of the same warm 1-2 days followed by cool downs.
  9. Yeah I think it's the other aspects of CC that are impacting our snow events rather than just overall warming averages. So the big events get really big while there's less small to mid-tier storms like you said.
  10. Fast Pacific flow probably helped keep us colder than we would've been this month as it prevented big inland cutters from forming which would've torched us.
  11. Yeah I don't feel good moving forward. Congrats snowman19 it seems that calling for warm & snowless every year means you'll get it right eventually like a dead clock. However if December doesn't play out like typical Nina climo what's to say Jan-March will. So it's too early to say what will happen.
  12. 28F right now. Temps dropping quickly outside urban areas.
  13. Another chilly day for late November. 40F now and 43F today. Solidly negative departure month and a stark difference from the record warm October.
  14. You won't get much with fast Pacific jet pattern. You don't even get the big inland cutters due to how fast the flow is. There's a good cold source to our north though so we end up on the cooler side of things but it'll never get very cold due to state of pattern.
  15. If December doesn't follow the typical Nina narrative then why should the other months follow it. That being said you don't want to get completely shut out in a Nina December otherwise it doesn't bode well for the rest of winter.
  16. MJO very borderline. Doesn't look very strong, signs it may slink into 7
  17. I would hold off on that until we enter December. Don't like the continued +EPO and strengthening Alaskan vortex. Also lack of Atlantic blocking is concerning.
  18. March is the other cooler month and if November played out that way this year I wouldn't be surprised to see another cold March. Also think Jan & especially Feb torches unless there's massive blocking. Also hoping we see a 2017-2018 winter play out.
  19. I think mood flakes are becoming more possible Sunday with potential for something more. Really depends on how much the shortwave is able to dig. We do have cold air around which is positive.
  20. A -EPO will be tough to get but you don't need arctic cold for snowfall opportunities. Despite a very positive EPO November will still be BN.
  21. November 28-30 is pretty much December already. Kind of like how March 1-2 could still be February.
  22. Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go.
  23. And yet when it shows warm in the LR you say it must be correct. The AN November call will also be a flop.
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