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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    The full phasing is apparent and it's causing it to rapidly intensify as it tugs west. Could be one hell of coastal/wind storm
  2. SnoSki14
    You'd have to be extremely unlucky not to score something.
  3. SnoSki14
    It's not the snowstorm people want but should be a notable event nonetheless. In fact a more phased, western storm would result in a better pattern for the next storm. Heights are trending higher in NAO region.
  4. SnoSki14
    Models are showing stronger phasing as we get closer which leads to a stronger storm getting tugged further west. It could be one of those rare times where winds are under forecast and HWW verify.
  5. SnoSki14
    I see a few opportunities for snow before things change. Maybe the 20/21st then 24-26th and likely Jan 30-Feb 3 period.
  6. SnoSki14
    It's a gift and a curse. The right storm could go batshit crazy and drop widespread 30-40"+ totals eventually. That's still possible next 2 weeks as pattern remains favorable.
  7. SnoSki14
    Absolutely and there's not much to stop this from doing so.
  8. SnoSki14
    Those words are forbidden
  9. SnoSki14
    We'll have to see if that ramps up as we get closer.
  10. SnoSki14
    Yes hopefully. Nothing worse than cold/dry. I'd rather it be 60-70F if that's the case.
  11. SnoSki14
    I think we'll see snow events develop out of nowhere with short lead times like 13/14
  12. SnoSki14
    We're gonna rip strong winds well inland with this track. I could see widespread 60mph winds if temps can get into the 50s.
  13. SnoSki14
    Yeah this should be interesting. The strength & track, gradient & timing around Full Moon should at least produce a significant wind/coastal flooding event.
  14. SnoSki14
    That look above is why there are better opportunities after Monday's storm.
  15. SnoSki14
    Well at least the GFS wasn't worse. I did like that it had more confluence ahead of it but the vortex was also a little slower this run so it cancelled out. That track would bring some serious wind ahead of it though.
  16. SnoSki14
    The Icon def looks east. Nice snows on the front end and surface temps never get much above freezing. That's probably the best scenario for us. Front end dump followed by dry slot.
  17. SnoSki14
    That's interesting give how amped they tend to be.
  18. SnoSki14
    The current pattern is not all that favorable for a snow event but it does get a lot better after the 20th. So don't fret if this doesn't work out. There will be plenty more chances. EPS/GEFS looks favorable into February.
  19. SnoSki14
    It's a thread the needle event for sure. The placement/movement of the high ahead of it isn't great. But a storm cutting through the Appalachians is also unusual. I'm a bit more optimistic today than yesterday but we'll see.
  20. SnoSki14
    He's completely wrong about every storm trending north west as well. The ocean storm never trended west, our last snow event never trended west. The southern NJ storm never trended north. Everything will come down to the speed of the southern vortex. If it's ejected east faster than the phase will occur later. The lack of a true block hurts but the ocean storm still helps create some confluence ahead of Monday's system. But if I had to guess I would put the chances at an early phase/cutter 70% and a GEFS outcome at 30% right now. I need to see the 12z runs speed up that southern vortex or it's game over. Fast flow has been the theme lately and without a strong +PNA to slow down the flow I'd be surprised if models didn't speed up the southern stream low
  21. SnoSki14
    I don't think it would be a brush. The phasing could just be delayed if the southern wave moves east faster. And I do think models are too slow with the southern stream. Progressive flow pattern has been the game last several years. So it's not over just yet Gfs def speeding up southern wave last few runs as well
  22. SnoSki14
    I think the only way the outcome changes is if models are incorrect in holding back the energy around day 3 when the storm is in Arkansas. If the storm ends up being more progressive then it'll end up further east. The west pull into central PA is the result of a complete phase with northern stream. If this phase is delayed due to the southern vortex moving east faster then the track will most likely be offshore or a coastal hugger. Note Euro tends to be hold back things too much so its amped up track wasn't surprising. The GEFS were def interesting.
  23. SnoSki14
    That's def not true. Our last snow event did not keep trending west otherwise we would have had a foot. The snow event that slammed Atlantic City trended west initially but stopped as we got within 3 days.
  24. SnoSki14
    Those off hour runs tend to be a lot wonkier. 18z GFS is usually more progressive so I'd like to see a continuation at 0z to see if there's any hope. Good to see the GEFS trend east though.
  25. SnoSki14
    I wonder if models are incorrect on hanging back the shortwave around day 3. Because that would make a big difference down the line.
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