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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I would wait a few days. The wild Pacific jet is causing day and night changes over a span of a few runs. It could easily flip in 2 days. Anything after 3 days is highly speculative on the op runs.
  2. SnoSki14
    Nice Xmas blowtorch on the Euro. Blocking doesn't mean squat with a record negative PNA/PDO. If you thought the anomalies for the US were warm before just wait till next week. Should easily be the warmest December on record.
  3. SnoSki14
    PNA is the problem. The streams won't phase unless we see a more positive PNA. Hopefully it keeps trending more favorably
  4. SnoSki14
    Pretty obvious trends as we get closer. At 5 days out this could continue to trend.
  5. SnoSki14
    MJO 7 is still okay though.
  6. SnoSki14
    Gfs getting closer to something good for 23rd. Really nice improvements out west. Trend is our friend?
  7. SnoSki14
    Yeah I'd be surprised if it pulled it off so quickly.
  8. SnoSki14
    Today & tomorrow will be the warmest days for a while. EPS is looking better. Improvements out west for sure, hopefully that trend continues. We're a couple positive trends away from taking the 22nd system more seriously. That's a really nice Greenland block on the EPS and the big trough out west has been shifting further offshore.
  9. SnoSki14
    Euro looked quite interesting for that date too.
  10. SnoSki14
    Miller A look if the PNA was more positive day 5 on Euro. Blocking is present.
  11. SnoSki14
    Very little this time of year unless there's strong advection present. Higjest I see is 65 in southern/eastern NJ
  12. SnoSki14
    Yeah def not
  13. SnoSki14
    That mega -PNA isn't very exciting this time of year. The Atlantic blocking needs to be on steroids to compensate.
  14. SnoSki14
    That EPS is looking kinda interesting just before Christmas. Miller A hopes maybe? We'd need a ton of improvement out west but will monitor to see if there's a trend.
  15. SnoSki14
    Not a chance with that -PNA
  16. SnoSki14
    We should expect more fall/winter tornadoes as climate warms. Strong jet stream & cyclones this time of year coupled with warming temperatures is a recipe for trouble.
  17. SnoSki14
    What do you think this means. Because we seem to be getting the typical Jan/Feb Nina climo now. However this suggests the rest of winter won't play out like a typical Nina.
  18. SnoSki14
    It's gonna take a while before you see its effects. Most of New England is in a prime spot for it.
  19. SnoSki14
    Yeah I wish. Somehow I don't see anything like that play out. At this point it's a struggle to even get a couple BN days strung together. 55-61-57 next 3 days in north Jersey.
  20. SnoSki14
    Yeah good trends last night. Blocking in AO/NAO regions is quite good. Just need that to translate out west some more. Meanwhile another 55+ day on tap with 60+ tomorrow.
  21. SnoSki14
    Strong gradient at around 41N through the 24th. I do see ensembles are moving the blocking further west which would improve the Pacific pattern too. If this is true then it'll open the door for something from around Christmas to early Jan.
  22. SnoSki14
    Until the PNA improves we're cooked. Euro/EPS barely give us BN temps as most of the cold is out west.
  23. SnoSki14
    BTW MJO is now expected to halt in phase 7 so lagging effects do spell a period of colder weather & maybe snows after December 20th. It's probably a short window though, about 2 weeks before a more unfavorable pattern develops again. If it does manage to get into 8-1 then January will be cooler but think that's unlikely right now.
  24. SnoSki14
    I'd take the PNA/EPO 10x over the NAO
  25. SnoSki14
    Which is why I can't see us doing well in this pattern. That -PNA is a death knell for this time of year. -PNA is better for us after mid Feb. when wavelengths change. S/C New England should do well though.
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