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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Surface temps are more likely than not going to end up colder than forecast. Areas away from immediate metro should watch out. Primary low is quite weak, it's going to be a struggle warming the surface.
  2. SnoSki14
    Yeah seriously. The people further north on the edge should be the most worried.
  3. SnoSki14
    Surface temperatures will be difficult to warm regardless so more ice possible. I'm hoping we stay on the positive side of freezing but it'll be close. Currently low 30s with dews in the teens.
  4. SnoSki14
    You want to suppress the SE ridge as much as possible this time of year and models often underestimate the strength of the SE ridge. This would actually be a good look if it verified. Models showing more of a -AO by mid March so winter may not be over just yet.
  5. SnoSki14
    If you think this temperature swing was impressive just wait till you go from 80s to 30s in April over 3-4 hours
  6. SnoSki14
    Rgem would make for a very messy Friday commute. That's something to watch as it's usually the more amped/warmer model.
  7. SnoSki14
    These mild days are nice but it just makes the cold following them feel a lot worse.
  8. SnoSki14
    All it takes is small ridging to set new records It's effortless
  9. SnoSki14
    I think this is often exaggerated. Sure there could be chilly days but it's pretty likely we average AN overall. Average temps are rapidly going up by then
  10. SnoSki14
    This winter has highlighted the importance of -NAO/AO blocking.
  11. SnoSki14
    Good, models are trending warmer. No icy mess to deal with. HRRR takes low to buffalo
  12. SnoSki14
    I'll take rain over an icy slop any day. The only time I don't mind sleet and ZR is if it's on top of a few inches of snow. It's good for snowpacks and that's about it.
  13. SnoSki14
    Rgem was one huge mess Friday morning. Hope that's wrong and we just rain.
  14. SnoSki14
    South of Newark
  15. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow. I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city.
  16. SnoSki14
    You'd need substantial shifts south. At this point I'm hoping for north ticks to avoid the mess.
  17. SnoSki14
    Oh great cold and dry in March. How wonderful.
  18. SnoSki14
    GFS & GEFS most recently. There's not a lot of wiggle room given it's 4 days out and these SWFE love to keep ticking north.
  19. SnoSki14
    Models are trending north though. Even SNE might get screwed here
  20. SnoSki14
    Surface will be hard to warm given extensive high pressure. Thinking it'll be a big mess over here.
  21. SnoSki14
    If the models were showing snow right now 4+ days out you'd be all in but suddenly they're 100% right this far out. I'd give it a couple days. I don't think snow is likely but I don't want to discount it either.
  22. SnoSki14
    Yeah it's great if you live in Massachusetts.
  23. SnoSki14
    We'll prob hit 70F or better Wednesday and then 35F Thursday. More crazy swings
  24. SnoSki14
    You'd want higher heights extending towards Greenland because it would help pin the PV further south. The current setup allows the SE ridge to flex giving us either rain events or mixed precip. It's a good setup for areas further north though.
  25. SnoSki14
    That's how it goes sometimes though there's a limit given the extensive high pressure up north. It wouldn't surprise me if the cold press was stronger but the wave could also amp up. It's tough to get a lot of snow south this time of year without strong Atlantic blocking.
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