SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I tend to think it won't be. The storm ahead of it acts like a 50/50. We could be looking at a classic Miller A here
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Yup I'll take that over some BS scraper.
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Just go with ensembles
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There's some shades of 94 with that pattern in late Jan & early Feb. It's becoming increasingly likely the cold pattern will stick around longer than expected possibly as late as Feb 10. If that's the case then we've yet to experience the true cold/snows that are on the table. The Jan 20 - Feb 10 timeframe is also a very favorable period for big snows.
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Today is make it or break it for Friday's threat. Oddly enough ensembles continue to trend better for it. GEPS was particularly impressive. There's a scenario out there where both systems, Fri & Sun/Mon deliver though the odds are very low. There's also a chance neither do. Either way we'll have plenty more opportunities next week and beyond. Current temp 16F, a couple degrees warmer than expected. Weekend could be a lot colder in wake of ocean storm. Single digits perhaps?
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The signal is real. The ocean storm is not trending west and the shortwave is slower to dive south. All you need is enough separation and boom.
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That's a nice Miller A. The shortwave that eventually dives out of western Canada hangs back longer allowing for greater separation between it and the ocean storm.
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We will def score within the next 2 weeks. If it doesn't happen this week it'll happen next week. Next week is an excellent period historically as well. I don't think we've ever seen this modeled pattern (since 2000) not produce at least one big event.
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I know it's crazy but I ain't giving up on the ocean storm for Friday. The trends on the GEFS are notable. I'm giving it another day or so to see what the trends are.
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29F right now, which is meh cold for mid Jan. We used to have highs in the teens and low single digits.
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How'd your last OTS call play out. Also there's no need to panic. It's extremely unlikely we go through this pattern without another significant snow event.
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Watch ensembles not OP runs. OP runs beyond 3 days are essentially useless in this pattern. Ideally the miller A trends west & hits us then becomes a 50/50 for the following shortwave that turns into a Miller B. Additionally the Miller A could miss us but still act as a 50/50 regardless and we still get our Miller B storm right after. This is probably the more likely scenario.
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GEFS trending better for Friday.
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GEFS continues to trend better for Thurs/Fri. Getting closer to something more interesting. Good lead time of 4 days. Could keep trending more favorably.
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That's a good amount of time to correct as well. Hopefully it continues to show a more pronounced ridge out west that doesn't get knocked down so quickly.
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I'm keeping an eye out west. Are models breaking down the PNA too quickly. Will it be a stronger spike? Looks like CMC went towards GFS
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If that PNA spike didn't get knocked down it could've worked out but there's still time to watch it.
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I'm going all-in on the Thursday/Friday system. It's going to surprise a lot of people. And 5 days out is an eternity so plenty of room for changes.
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Widespread teens in NJ just inland If precip gets here early then it'll be a problem.
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Let it get a little further west first.
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Yes def worth keeping an eye on. Ensembles are trending towards something too.
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The ensembles look very nice after the 15th. Cold but not frigid which is good since you don't want cold/dry. We'll have a quiet period after tomorrow and then it should get very interesting for 2 weeks minimum.
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The timing is a relief. Had it been on a Monday morning there would've been big problems. I do think the icing will be worse than forecast. It's gonna be a challenge warming up those surface temps. Should be in the teens tonight. Roads are also even colder.
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Models all over the place after the Arctic shot though a general moderation period (4-5 days) is likely with somewhat AN temps.
