SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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12F right now by far the coldest of the season. Good thing there's no strong wind to match.
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Two runs ago it whiffed and you think it's going to Syracuse? The OP run is further west than the westernmost ensemble track. Does that mean it can't eventually be an inland runner, no, but it's way too early to jump the gun.
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Hopefully it delivers. So far December has been a massive disappointment and I have one 5" snow event that pretty much melted already. So there's plenty of work to be done.
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For shits & giggles Icon is OTS so don't worry about OP runs.
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If it does track inland that means it fully phased and would likely be extremely strong (960s) aka major coastal flooding/winds. Really bad timing with full moon on Monday However given our pattern thus far a big inland cutters seems unlikely. Atlantic City has a top 5 snowy Jan already. The coastal low is the more favored track.
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
SnoSki14 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
That EPS looks very nice. -
Which is why you use the ensembles. The OP runs will be all over the place. I'm pretty confident we'll get nice storm out of this. Looks like a classic to me.
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
SnoSki14 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Who cares what it shows at day 6. Would you wanna be in the bullseye right now. A run ago it was whiffing east. Just use the ensembles until 3 days out. This is gonna be a big Miller A for everyone lock it in. -
You're actually hoping Fridays storm blows up closer to us to allow the next storm to take a track further east.
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I tend to think it won't be. The storm ahead of it acts like a 50/50. We could be looking at a classic Miller A here
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Yup I'll take that over some BS scraper.
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Just go with ensembles
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There's some shades of 94 with that pattern in late Jan & early Feb. It's becoming increasingly likely the cold pattern will stick around longer than expected possibly as late as Feb 10. If that's the case then we've yet to experience the true cold/snows that are on the table. The Jan 20 - Feb 10 timeframe is also a very favorable period for big snows.
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Today is make it or break it for Friday's threat. Oddly enough ensembles continue to trend better for it. GEPS was particularly impressive. There's a scenario out there where both systems, Fri & Sun/Mon deliver though the odds are very low. There's also a chance neither do. Either way we'll have plenty more opportunities next week and beyond. Current temp 16F, a couple degrees warmer than expected. Weekend could be a lot colder in wake of ocean storm. Single digits perhaps?
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The signal is real. The ocean storm is not trending west and the shortwave is slower to dive south. All you need is enough separation and boom.
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That's a nice Miller A. The shortwave that eventually dives out of western Canada hangs back longer allowing for greater separation between it and the ocean storm.
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We will def score within the next 2 weeks. If it doesn't happen this week it'll happen next week. Next week is an excellent period historically as well. I don't think we've ever seen this modeled pattern (since 2000) not produce at least one big event.
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I know it's crazy but I ain't giving up on the ocean storm for Friday. The trends on the GEFS are notable. I'm giving it another day or so to see what the trends are.
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29F right now, which is meh cold for mid Jan. We used to have highs in the teens and low single digits.
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How'd your last OTS call play out. Also there's no need to panic. It's extremely unlikely we go through this pattern without another significant snow event.
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Watch ensembles not OP runs. OP runs beyond 3 days are essentially useless in this pattern. Ideally the miller A trends west & hits us then becomes a 50/50 for the following shortwave that turns into a Miller B. Additionally the Miller A could miss us but still act as a 50/50 regardless and we still get our Miller B storm right after. This is probably the more likely scenario.
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GEFS trending better for Friday.
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GEFS continues to trend better for Thurs/Fri. Getting closer to something more interesting. Good lead time of 4 days. Could keep trending more favorably.
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That's a good amount of time to correct as well. Hopefully it continues to show a more pronounced ridge out west that doesn't get knocked down so quickly.
