SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Well the changes need to start at 12z. The closer you get the less likely you'll see a lot of changes. Once you're under 60hrs for a major storm all you'll get is minor ticks. With all the data coming in today we still have until 0z tonight to see bigger shifts.
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Our prospects for a major storm is over but eastern areas could still get snow. Best case scenario is you get warning snows to NYC. We're running out of time to see major changes. Gradient will be tight.
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East special. Atlantic City could pick up several inches, really nice winter for them. Eastern LI will do well
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Nam went way east. Looks like my initial thoughts will be proven correct and this will miss to the east. GFS leading the way yet again. At this rate only eastern LI and eastern SNE may benefit. The Euro has been overamping storms all year but it too began shifting east last night. The writing is on the wall.
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East shifts continue on Nam. Areas outside of eastern SNE likely to get shafted.
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It's one of the best models we have.
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What's your excuse gonna be when Euro shifts east tonight.
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How befitting of winter 21/22
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Yeah you're right about that. The GFS/GEFS does have a progressive bias which matters significantly when the goalposts are so narrow. Big Euro run coming. It just needs to hold.
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That's great. If the models agree on this then the GFS becomes an outlier.
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Normally I would think the GFS is just doing its normal waffling but it has done really well this season. It also highlights what a thread the needle storm this really is. All it takes is that sw hanging back a little longer and we get almost nothing.
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The GFS has def done better than the Euro this season. I don't think anyone should discount tonight's run.
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A miss east was always the risk.
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Yup that's all she wrote. I think the Euro is gonna lose this one. GFS has been killing it this season.
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Don't pay attention to the surface. H5 is considerably different than last couple runs with a strong trend towards Euro.
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That's all I care about. Who cares what it shows on the surface.
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It's def not worth much just like Nam past 48hrs ain't worth much either.
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The Nam drops 3-4" in NJ/East PA before the coastal even gets going from some overrunning snows.
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Yes, that would've been a massive blizzard
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I don't think a 950s low is out of the question.
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You're fine. If we do get snow it wouldn't be till Friday night closer to midnight.
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No thank you for areas SW. I'll take 05/06 & 2011 though.
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Just please no repeat of Jan 2015
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Very nice But is a rug pull coming tonight or tomorrow or are we good?
