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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Very cold storm, I think 7-8" near New Brunswick seems reasonable
  2. SnoSki14
    Well then they weren't west enough
  3. SnoSki14
    It wasn't in the cards. 6-7" is doable though. At least cleanup will be easy
  4. SnoSki14
    What a year for coastal nj
  5. SnoSki14
    NJ radar looking nice. Ratios should increase overnight
  6. SnoSki14
    6-8 likely with locally higher totals
  7. SnoSki14
    For who?
  8. SnoSki14
    Sounds like weenie wishcasting to me.
  9. SnoSki14
    Nice to see the HRRR continuing to trend better.
  10. SnoSki14
    Do not buy the low shredding like that when it's so consolidated early on.
  11. SnoSki14
    EPS is only relevant for mid-long range forecasts. Not when the storm is occurring Additionally the bust potential is to the upside. If the models are wrong about delaying the phasing/capture then the 06z Nam wins.
  12. SnoSki14
    With less wind likely ratios should be quite high. We saw this with the early Jan storm.
  13. SnoSki14
    People tossing the towel before the storm starts? Who could've seen that coming
  14. SnoSki14
    Yeah if that works itself out then watch out Short term meso watch for that
  15. SnoSki14
    GFS consolidating better. Trough is sharper
  16. SnoSki14
    Ratios should be good with this. I think people are underestimating that even with the wind factor. I could see 15:1 in this setup
  17. SnoSki14
    The double barrel look is likely showing up because the models are trying to resolve the capture. The lows wants to go NE but the capture would tuck it NW so you get solutions that show both. But this is why you should temper your expectations. Don't expect 20" of snow, aim low and if you do get more than you expect it'll be a nice surprise.
  18. SnoSki14
    Hopefully that's wrong
  19. SnoSki14
    It was a western outlier
  20. SnoSki14
    Reverse psychology works
  21. SnoSki14
    Will the Nam be correct? Maybe, it often shines right about now. I would play it a lot more conservatively. Hopefully we reach more consensus at 12z.
  22. SnoSki14
    Gfs will still be correcting as the storm begins
  23. SnoSki14
    In most cases these powerful storms keep ticking west till it begins. It's what often leads to unexpected mixing near the coast. This time mixing won't be an issue though.
  24. SnoSki14
    BTW temps are in the teens with 50-70mph gusts. Insanity if this verifies
  25. SnoSki14
    Absolutely ridiculous. Those warm SSTs will also aid in its intensification
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