SnoSki14

Almost at the range where Euro would lock in.

Dual maximum perhaps.

Given the rapid intensification you could easily see the low do a NW jog before moving NNE/NE This happens as the surface and ULL catch up to each other. The inland cutter did something like that causing those westward shifts.

Almost an elongation of the low which could help get the precip further back west.

Yeah we'll see how well this ages

I see that as well. The Euro is probably our best case scenario.

Maybe for once this could work to our benefit and result in a more tucked in track.

That's what's gonna happen isn't it. This has central & eastern SNE bomb, western areas fringe written all over it.

A tuck 50 miles more west would do. It's nice to see models trending more favorably for once.

What you mean? Think it'll go back east or west.

GFS bringing the storm back? All it would take for a better scenario is a slightly faster ejection of the sw. There's time for that to happen but it could just as easily trend the other way. Eastern SNE is in a much better spot. We need the perfect thread the needle solution.

That shortwave is everything. If it ejects faster then the stronger, western ensemble plots win. If it's too late then GFS/CMC win.

Maybe this is the period where models back off only to bring it back the next day. Either way hopefully something works out because the pattern turns to crap right after and will stay that way most of Feb.

This is what I mean by over analyzing every model run. It'll just drive you crazy. Check back Thursday

Goofus said take your feet of snow talk and shove it.

Ant will be driving off a cliff if SNE gets 2' and he gets 2" But it's a possibility. Hopefully the large nature of the storm at least drops warning snows this far west.

How does this storm compare to that one synoptically. I would think the +AO/NAO this time around would cause the storm to tuck in closer to the coast over time.

Just commentating after seeing Euro. Unless there's a massive regime change next day or so it seems likely we phase. In almost every instance when this occurred the storm ticked west and/or got going faster which caused a west tick (see our last big inland cutter). Having that extra wiggle room provided by the GFS/Euro is a very good thing right now. A bullseye this far out usually means we mix/changeover as storm eventually shifts too far west. This is especially true given we don't have a true -NAO block in place.

I'm going to give these boards and models a rest till Wednesday or Thursday. Analyzing every model run will drive you nuts especially if the end result isn't what you wanted. All you need to know is that a big snowstorm is on the table.

The GFS/GEFS are a little more east so the more westward CMC provides a good balance between both.

It doesn't take much to drop 2' totals these days.

Big storm with some wiggle room.

I mean it's hard to complain when the region has gotten multiple KU storms over the past couple decades

The WAR will substitute the poor Atlantic blocking. PNA ridge out west is my biggest concern.

OTS is much more likely. If the phasing is off this will end up much further east. And that could still play out. There's a lot of time left