SnoSki14

If we get to the 30th without anything to show for it then I want to burn this winter to the ground. One of the most frustrating periods I've seen. Nothing but close calls topped with useless cold. I'll take the torch winters over this crap.

The best I see is clippers or some kind of redeveloper otherwise the flow is too fast for anything else. Day 5 on GFS exemplifies this perfectly. You got a good southern vortex but the northern stream is zipping along so nothing happens and vortex shears out as it heads east. This kind of pattern would've been better late winter when wavelengths change.

In hindsight this pattern looked good from afar but everything seemed to destructively interfere with one another. The fast flow never let up and when it did the blocking was insufficient so we had a major cutter. At least we got some snow out of it. After the 30th I think we're skunked till Feb 15-20th the earliest but then again we've also had snow in much warmer patterns so who knows. I continue to believe Feb 20 - March 15/20 will be our snowiest period. It aligns with the east based Nina & QBO pattern. Anyway enjoy the inch you get bc it could be the last one for a while.

The big dogs will happen late this season.

Perhaps our best shot at something meaningful before pattern turns less favorable in the 25-27th timeframe. PNA ridge at its strongest with a combo Miller A/B setup perhaps.

The HREF is pretty accurate in these circumstances so I buy it.

Mother nature has other plans. March & December have flipped past decade and March typically averages more snow than December. To me it's still winter till March 15th. Afterwards spring can come.

Things playing out like I thought except everything is delayed. We got our snow chances in January but favorable period started later and will end by the 30th or early Feb the latest. First 15-20 days of Feb will be torched. Still think late winter will deliver Feb 20 - March 20.

What an absolute fail this month despite a seemingly favorable pattern. We could see a BN temperature month with not a lot of snow to show for it. Either way it's looking increasingly likely we flip mild early Feb so time is ticking. That being said, we've had better luck getting snow in milder patterns over the past few years then cold ones so who knows what will happen.

Nice to see some positive changes but we're getting down to the wire now. If we don't continue to see major changes throughout tomorrow then we're prob out of it.

Mesos will be the ones to watch. Very rarely do globals get these smaller systems right. Nam/HRRR is the one to watch

Start time is pretty good (5-7am) and it ends before midday.

There's no reason why this can't keep trending north & west. I see a +AO/NAO with a +PNA and an Arctic supply over the area. This is reminscent of 1994. GEFS continues to trend higher heights offshore & SE Canada. And thanks Snowman19 for the weenies you warminista troll. You said every storm has trended NW this year and suddenly this one can't?

I'm going with the Euro here. Ensembles continuing to trend higher with offshore heights and pulling the energy further SW. The low will not escape east that easily.

I disagree and so does the Nam which is clearly shifting to the Euro by 78-84hrs. Plenty of higher heights offshore to keep the 22nd in play.

Pretty impressive streamer in western NJ

I think it's going to delay this look for a while longer. It would be nice if it could delay it till Feb 15 when -PNA starts to lose its influence.

Mixing could eventually be an issue however the strong Arctic high north will make it very difficult for us to see anything but frozen.

You said every storm trended NW this winter but suddenly this one can't? There's every reason for this to trend west actually. In fact eventually people may panic about it trending too far west. Gfs is moving towards euro btw, higher heights off the coast.

Depends on where that boundary sets up. It could be a bit offshore or south of the area. So either it'll be great for snowlovers here or incredibly frustrating.

Strong heights offshore, tons of baroclinic energy. Arctic mass seeding the area. Could be a recipe for something really good.

I would welcome a blowtorch rest of winter just to eliminate any false hope & prevent more agony.

Prospects look good for snow events into early Feb

A lot of baroclinicity just offshore and a strong high to the north anchoring the cold air. Could be interesting

Winds are howling right now