SnoSki14
-
Posts
15,253 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnoSki14
-
A lot has changed in a very short time. And this way I can't lose lol
-
There is wiggle room which is good. If the phase is legit which it might be then things should tick west. However the trough is further east than the inland cutter debacle, the placement of the high is much better. But a lot can go wrong this far out too.
-
Is this gonna be like that Feb 2010 storm that shafted eastern SNE while areas west got slammed.
-
This is displaced much further east than that storm. It's unlikely it gets further west than LI.
-
The 5 day ensemble runs averaging into the 980s tells me this will likely peak in the 950-960mb range. So if things do come together and at that strength then the storm will be inside the BM.
-
Looks like it's a fine balancing act between the more fast Pacific flow vs the building heights in SE Canada. If this phases and explodes like models suggest then theoretically it should end up further west. I still think the faster flow will win out and an eastern solution is more likely. SNE is in a good place for this.
-
What a crazy turn of events. 06z GFS onboard now as well.
-
Very strong signal from GEFS at a powerful storm. I think it's gonna be a near miss. Could be good for eastern New England though.
-
When the wavelengths start to change that's when things could get wonky. And sometimes that wonkiness can lead to a snowstorm. CC has accelerated the odds of such freak occurrences deep into March.
-
Looks like it unfortunately. We kept the same unfavorable fast flow despite colder air coming in due to Alaskan ridging. The CMC is on an island. Tonight will make or break it.
-
This threat has been dead. Who cares what one op run of a model shows
-
Anyone not in SE Canada should prob sit this one out. East trends continue with GFS.
-
Hopefully this works out because that's it for snow chances for most given the warm Feb coming up. Only place that might snow after Jan is NNE.
-
Ensembles back on the warm Feb train. Meaning if we don't get any snow next 7-8 days we're shut out for a long time possibly till late Feb.
-
Great post Tip but unfortunately it'll end up in a collection of close calls me thinks. I see a potential bomb but strongly feel it'll be too far east for most. Trough is displaced east and there isn't a strong blocking pattern to anchor the storm in. But hey at least there's something interesting to track.
-
The GEFS wasn't that impressive. If it captures it'll be well offshore. The trough is too far east and there's no Greenland blocking to hold it in place. At best it'll be a brush-by.
-
Except there's zero support for it happening. This one's a dud imo. Late month is probably going to be OTS. Just not seeing anything positive in terms of snow atm. Fast flow ftl
-
Fast flow ain't helping anyone. There's plenty of shortwaves out there but they ain't phasing.
-
The 12z runs highlight the problems of fast flow. Unless we have a very strong PNA ridge it'll be a struggle to get a phase going so I'm not very optimistic right now.
-
While our hunt for snow continues, parts of SC/NC/VA had a nice event last night. So far this year has had something for everyone. Places to our south really cleaned up already.
-
Yikes no thanks, 0 is enough for me. Although I guess -30 isn't as bad as long as there's no wind.
-
Something is def going to happen end of January given strong and consistent signals from ensembles. Way too early to say what exactly though. That's a strong signal from 06z GEFS. The problem is whether the trough axis will end up too far east leading to another close call. I'd like to see a sharper ridge out west moving forward.
-
Don't do it to yourself.
-
The trough looks considerably further east than the last major cutter. OTS is more of a risk imo. I think the new Euro upgrade amps the storms too far.
