SnoSki14

Personally I think a miss is more likely than what the Euro op shows. The trough is pretty far east.

Gfs shows a pretty good SSW event early Feb

Now watch that verify lol

The snows will come when everyone has lost all hope. 12z runs weren't too bad. I like the GFS/ggem combo

The ridge over Alaska maintains the cold supply despite seemingly unfavorable parameters otherwise.

Let's hope so, the cold/dry weather is trash.

That ridge for February could easily give widespread 70s for multiple days even. Maybe even an 80F reading nearby.

Get ready for another March 2018 repeat.

Theres def some merit to this. Euro op has been performing terribly this year. It really would be amazing if we got through this period with nothing. Talk about incredibly bad luck.

Looks like we're back to our cool Nov, blowtorch Dec & Feb and likely cool March pattern. Jan has been a mixed bag with this year leaning cooler.

Back-edge coming fast. Will get a dusting at best. We've had more than that in a 10 minute squall.

White rain, 34F. Looks like it ends by 11. Ground is wet so unlikely to see anything. Pathetic

If it's not gonna snow then I'd love an extended spring. Nothing more depressing than cold/dry, it's completely useless.

Chances are when we're hoping for a nice early spring the weather will turn foul. If Feb is a blowtorch then March likely won't be.

I'm at 37F as well. If it does flip it'll last for less than an hour. The least snowy models got it right.

I want this till spring, this winter has been the most frustrating one I can remember. Let's torch this f*cker

If we get to the 30th without anything to show for it then I want to burn this winter to the ground. One of the most frustrating periods I've seen. Nothing but close calls topped with useless cold. I'll take the torch winters over this crap.

The best I see is clippers or some kind of redeveloper otherwise the flow is too fast for anything else. Day 5 on GFS exemplifies this perfectly. You got a good southern vortex but the northern stream is zipping along so nothing happens and vortex shears out as it heads east. This kind of pattern would've been better late winter when wavelengths change.

In hindsight this pattern looked good from afar but everything seemed to destructively interfere with one another. The fast flow never let up and when it did the blocking was insufficient so we had a major cutter. At least we got some snow out of it. After the 30th I think we're skunked till Feb 15-20th the earliest but then again we've also had snow in much warmer patterns so who knows. I continue to believe Feb 20 - March 15/20 will be our snowiest period. It aligns with the east based Nina & QBO pattern. Anyway enjoy the inch you get bc it could be the last one for a while.

The big dogs will happen late this season.

Perhaps our best shot at something meaningful before pattern turns less favorable in the 25-27th timeframe. PNA ridge at its strongest with a combo Miller A/B setup perhaps.

The HREF is pretty accurate in these circumstances so I buy it.

Mother nature has other plans. March & December have flipped past decade and March typically averages more snow than December. To me it's still winter till March 15th. Afterwards spring can come.

Things playing out like I thought except everything is delayed. We got our snow chances in January but favorable period started later and will end by the 30th or early Feb the latest. First 15-20 days of Feb will be torched. Still think late winter will deliver Feb 20 - March 20.

What an absolute fail this month despite a seemingly favorable pattern. We could see a BN temperature month with not a lot of snow to show for it. Either way it's looking increasingly likely we flip mild early Feb so time is ticking. That being said, we've had better luck getting snow in milder patterns over the past few years then cold ones so who knows what will happen.