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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    That's fair until the other models trend towards GFS.
  2. SnoSki14
    It was warmer initially but then it got colder particularly 850s with the 2nd low so we get a few inches. The other models need to come south though otherwise the GFS is an outlier and lost.
  3. SnoSki14
    That's a very meh pattern that should break AN. No torch though. It'll probably serve New England and the Midwest well.
  4. SnoSki14
    It builds in too late. That's where the differences lie. If the high builds in ahead of it then it'll play out more like the GFS. Otherwise it'll be more like a cold front or anafront
  5. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't jump to any conclusions yet. The worst case scenarios for the past storm never played out. If models trend stronger on the shortwave then GGEM will be correct
  6. SnoSki14
    Perhaps a compromise between the two models then.
  7. SnoSki14
    Yeah and it also had a massive storm west of the BM. GFS performed a lot better. We'll see if the Euro follows though.
  8. SnoSki14
    Oh great central & SNE get a big storm and we get the ice. I'll take the all rain option down here but CMC didn't do so hot with the last system.
  9. SnoSki14
    The GFS run gives you everything. Rain to ZR to sleet to snow. It didn't back down from 06z, it actually trended even colder.
  10. SnoSki14
    I know Icon is usually terrible but yikes at the ice threat it shows. Nam also trending south.
  11. SnoSki14
    That depends if the Arctic high builds to our north fast enough. On the warmer models it builds in as the wave approaches.
  12. SnoSki14
    06z GFS could be a fluke run. It's considerably more suppressed than 0z. We'll have to see if 12z confirms the trend. There's some dangerous amount of ice being shown just N/W of city with surface temps falling through 20s.
  13. SnoSki14
    Worth watching given strong Arctic high to the north. Cold air always wins in those scenarios.
  14. SnoSki14
    Reminds me of ice setups the southern plains get with the Arctic high supplying cold air that rapidly turns a cold rain into ice. Hopefully it's wrong
  15. SnoSki14
    You're at the mercy of the PNA given little to no Atlantic blocking. Typically Nina Febs are not great. PNA doesn't look terrible right now and there's cold on our side of the globe so all hope isn't lost. N/W areas away from immediate NYC metro could do well.
  16. SnoSki14
    My expectations for Feb particularly first 3 weeks are really low so if we get any snow it'll be a huge win. I remain positive for the Feb 20 - March 15 period.
  17. SnoSki14
    Works for me. I didn't get a lot of snow so I don't really care if it gets washed away. Plus I don't want ice. I think there's better potential after this though.
  18. SnoSki14
    So did anyone get the elusive 30" Looks like a couple spots hit it.
  19. SnoSki14
    At least you did well. Imagine being such a weenie that tracks a storm for a week, watching every model run only to get 6-7". Let this bury NNE
  20. SnoSki14
    GFS/CMC went the other way. Very icy in NNE and rain elsewhere.
  21. SnoSki14
    The early Feb storm could be more interesting. Strong AO drop around that time with PNA still positive. Some models are a lot colder/more suppressed. Although I expect mostly a cutter there is some evidence to the contrary. And if it is a cutter those who got very little snow yesterday will be vindicated somewhat.
  22. SnoSki14
    It'll be close, they're hanging between 3/4 so could go either way. I do think a warmer pattern eventually wins out but could be delayed. We could also go back and forth which means we'll be fighting a gradient pattern. Hopefully it breaks colder/snowier. There's a lot of Arctic air up north which is good. That will keep us in the game. I do think place N/W that missed out today will catch up quickly.
  23. SnoSki14
    This month has been a solid winter month. BN temperatures and AN snows. So even if everything goes to crap at least we got something out of it.
  24. SnoSki14
    Jesus at that banding at Boston. Someone's getting 3' or better
  25. SnoSki14
    Still coming down quite a bit by Somerset. Ratios must be quite high now. 18F
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