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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Dramatic much?
  2. SnoSki14
    What did it show for March?
  3. SnoSki14
    Luckily temps have mainly hovered around 31-32F to limit icing here though a glaze on colder surfaces is present. A couple degrees colder and it would've been a major problem.
  4. SnoSki14
    32/20 which is concerning. If temperatures fall to 28-29F there would be significant icing.
  5. SnoSki14
    GEFS picking up on it. Less -EPO more -AO and it's causing early March to trend colder. A neutral/negative PNA & negative AO is a good cold/snow signal for March.
  6. SnoSki14
    Surface temps are more likely than not going to end up colder than forecast. Areas away from immediate metro should watch out. Primary low is quite weak, it's going to be a struggle warming the surface.
  7. SnoSki14
    Yeah seriously. The people further north on the edge should be the most worried.
  8. SnoSki14
    Surface temperatures will be difficult to warm regardless so more ice possible. I'm hoping we stay on the positive side of freezing but it'll be close. Currently low 30s with dews in the teens.
  9. SnoSki14
    You want to suppress the SE ridge as much as possible this time of year and models often underestimate the strength of the SE ridge. This would actually be a good look if it verified. Models showing more of a -AO by mid March so winter may not be over just yet.
  10. SnoSki14
    If you think this temperature swing was impressive just wait till you go from 80s to 30s in April over 3-4 hours
  11. SnoSki14
    Rgem would make for a very messy Friday commute. That's something to watch as it's usually the more amped/warmer model.
  12. SnoSki14
    These mild days are nice but it just makes the cold following them feel a lot worse.
  13. SnoSki14
    All it takes is small ridging to set new records It's effortless
  14. SnoSki14
    I think this is often exaggerated. Sure there could be chilly days but it's pretty likely we average AN overall. Average temps are rapidly going up by then
  15. SnoSki14
    This winter has highlighted the importance of -NAO/AO blocking.
  16. SnoSki14
    Good, models are trending warmer. No icy mess to deal with. HRRR takes low to buffalo
  17. SnoSki14
    I'll take rain over an icy slop any day. The only time I don't mind sleet and ZR is if it's on top of a few inches of snow. It's good for snowpacks and that's about it.
  18. SnoSki14
    Rgem was one huge mess Friday morning. Hope that's wrong and we just rain.
  19. SnoSki14
    South of Newark
  20. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't get my hopes up if you're expecting snow. I'm thinking ZR/Sleet to rain for anyone south of I-78 including the city.
  21. SnoSki14
    You'd need substantial shifts south. At this point I'm hoping for north ticks to avoid the mess.
  22. SnoSki14
    Oh great cold and dry in March. How wonderful.
  23. SnoSki14
    GFS & GEFS most recently. There's not a lot of wiggle room given it's 4 days out and these SWFE love to keep ticking north.
  24. SnoSki14
    Models are trending north though. Even SNE might get screwed here
  25. SnoSki14
    Surface will be hard to warm given extensive high pressure. Thinking it'll be a big mess over here.
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