SnoSki14
-
Posts
15,253 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by SnoSki14
-
Well above forecast
-
Yeah it won't take much to kill this meager pack
-
Don't know if it means much but temps overperforming by several degrees today.
-
You're right NE NJ is in that group. UKMET has been garbage throughout. It was the southernmost model now it's the warmest. However I'm not seeing the cold drain setup until after the precip ends. You want what's happening in TX. Large Arctic high to the north sinking southeast. That's not what we're getting
-
I highly doubt anyone in the immediate NYC metro gets any icing. You would need temps to fall through the 20s to see ice accretion. NW NJ, SE Upstate NY, NE PA is where the icing is much more likely. The GFS would have to be correct.
-
He can't admit his forecast is flopping hard. I thought torch Feb too, which is still possible but becoming more unlikely. He'll claim victory when we flip warm which isn't hard to do if you forecast warm/snowless every year.
-
GFS still holding on to the colder solution. Cools things down faster than 06z
-
Feb 10-20 could be a good period. PNA expansion out west into Alaska giving us colder air downstream.
-
Nam trending warmer. This will just be a rain event unless you're well north and west. Nearly 2" of rain too will melt everything with temps well in the 40s.
-
Lots of rain coming, should melt everything by Friday.
-
This sounds about right. Better than ice
-
Sooner or later when he keeps saying mild and snowless he'll end up right. The torch February that Snowman and I also believed would happen doesn't look to be playing out based on ensembles. The 2nd half of Feb would have to be really warm for it to work out.
-
The Euro was a bit more concerning. Places N&W of the city could have a problem but it wouldn't take much for the warmer solutions to verify. Just got to keep watching when that high builds
-
But will the high build in fast enough to drop those surface temps. Consensus says no. If it does then it would be an ice storm and surface temps would likely trend even colder. The snow cover would also help keep us cold.
-
It's certainly a lot colder than I expected. Ensembles really want to keep the PNA which automatically increases our snow chances. MJO forecasts also backing out of going into phase 4
-
Gfs all alone on the Arctic press which means it's most likely wrong. We generally want the Arctic high to be in place ahead of the system not as it's approaching. CMC likely to be correct imo. NNE will do well
-
I'm not buying the GFS until other models do and personally think it'll cave by tonight and definitely by tomorrow. We'll most likely see a cold rain (35-40F) and could finish with some snow showers before the storm ends With Ukie trending warmer, CMC warm this will end up as a non-event. The Arctic high generally needs to be in place ahead of the system for us to get frozen precip.
-
That AO dip is interesting. It does support some sort of coastal storm.
-
GFS ticking warmer though anyone above the Trenton line would still face a significant icing situation.
-
If the Arctic press is real then it'll keep trending colder.
-
It puts areas N/W on notice. I guess we'll see where the trends are today.
-
The GFS is likely too much of an outlier so it should trend warmer today. If it doesn't then it would be another major fail from the other models.
-
Models trending towards GFS is concerning regarding icing potential. Hopefully that reverses tomorrow
-
Very odd that GFS didn't back down at all.
-
After March 15 I'm done with winter so hopefully the sswe is a false flag.
