SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Yeah the source region looks pretty cold for latter November into December. That automatically makes it more likely that some of that cold will drain south. Personally I would bet on a near normal if not colder early winter.
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A warm, dry winter for the entire country would be a very good thing this year given inflation/gas costs. However usually when everyone says that'll be the result, the opposite plays out which is why I'm very skeptical of these long range forecasts. The rapidly changing climate has caused Ninas/Ninos to decouple from themselves and that's something that could happen again this year.
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Let's cancel winter now then and enjoy the warm weather & lower heating costs.
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If the blocking doesn't work out then 11/12 would be an ideal analog unfortunately. December is our best bet. Given the high oil/gas costs a warm winter wouldn't be a bad thing this year.
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Big diurnal swing days. Hit 37F this morning and should see 70F today. Lack of rain and full sunshine means temps could easily over perform.
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Already down to 31F. First 20s of the season coming up will kill everything left.
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How was December in those years? I forget.
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It could show an ideal pattern and you'd say it was inaccurate. Your warm bias is overplayed. Yes AN is favored obviously but I don't think it'll be another 11/12 or 19/20
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That's crazy how some barely hit 32 or not at all. Many places in Jersey were in the 20s this morning. Hit 30F myself.
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Friday night will be the coldest of this stretch. Widespread 20s likely under ideal raditional cooling.
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First freeze of the season. 31F Now 30F just after sunrise.
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Already down to 37F
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34F this morning. Excellent raditional cooling tonight should easily get us to freezing.
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Sounds like rocket fuel for another 30-40"+ snowstorm nearby. All you need is a favorable blocking interval which I think is likely this season and boom.
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Without blocking it's gonna get warm. The west is getting bombarded with troughs. I don't mind it though. By November warm is 60s which is lovely. Climo doesn't favor snow anyway.
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Yeah I wouldn't give up on the weekend coastal.
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They don't and I love getting all those weenies for posting the truth. Btw get ready for more 60s and 70s 2nd & 3rd week of November.
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If we're seeing this kind of warmth today imagine 5-10 years from now. It'll be Septemberlike in November.
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I do think mid November (or even earlier) will be mild but I also see that being transient. I think the last third will turn cooler and that will go along with the expected blocking in December.
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Euro missed the mark with the hybrid storm. It had the low tucked off NJ coast but it ended up SE of LI.
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If the Nina stays coupled then I would buy it. Early season blocking is also strongly favored due to weak PV.
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Looks like it continued to ramp up LLJ too
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And some still hope a major comes by one year. Yeah good luck with that I'm sure nothing bad will happen.
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Afternoon models amping up LLJ for tomorrow night. You can see there's better mixing with higher temps depicted for S/C NJ. Much more of a wind threat than the last system. Could easily see widespread 40-50mph gusts.
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Works for me. Been saving a lot of money on heating bills. As long as it's below 70 in November then I'm fine.
