SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It could stay like this till Thanksgiving
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No cold air in sight for October. Probably won't see a BN day after this week till November. Delayed frost and leaf change guaranteed though a sneaky late October snowfall wouldn't shock me.
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This highly suggest a lot of onshore flow days so probably near normal highs and warm minimums.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season
SnoSki14 replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Tropical Headquarters
Gfs keeps the wave behind Sam weak and tracks it into the Caribbean. -
There's not a lot of ridging out there. Obviously things have changed markedly since a couple days ago. There remains a small possibility Sam could get left behind if he stays far enough south instead of the ULL taking him OTS. He's really far east though, would be a miracle to get him west enough to impact the US. After Sam attention will shift to western Caribbean, lots of potential there heading into October.
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Tropical models will not handle the ULL correctly until it's game time. Euro will be very important going forward. Still the odds of an easy coast hit is probably 10% right now. The capture needs to happen for a hit.
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Euro is a lot closer to CMC than Gfs Looks like it'll be close for Maine. Still we're talking 9/10 days out so a lot will change. The strong ridge building in and potential ULL do seem to be on the table though. A capture is the only thing that will send it towards the east coast.
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There's your capture with the ULL Short term track next 3-4 days will be important. Further south it stays the more likely the CMC scenario could play out.
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Yea if that's correct then it'll def be way east. However the combo of the strong high to the north and ULL could create another system close to shore.
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Well I would rather not have a hurricane impact the area so OTS is best. That being said it's premature to say this will harmlessly go OTS at this stage.
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With a large ridge building in the east and strong ULL moving SW I think it's way too early to say it's going OTS
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It isn't wishcasting it's assessing the pattern.
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10 days out Next run will show a big hit
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The WAR will win the day as it has every time. The fact that it's so far west Day 9/10 should worry people.
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If that cutoff low is real then it's gonna be a problem. Every cutoff has adjusted west over time due to the WAR.
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Nope but thanks for playing
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How low future Sam stays will determine if the Euro is correct. Several troughs will be weakening the ridge to its north and subsequently cause him to head further north but eventually the WAR will rebuild. How far north he gets before the WAR rebuilds will be key.
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Yikes that's an ominous look.
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So far September has been very underwhelming though Larry was impressive. A lot of sheared OTS storms but that's very likely to change and it starts with this system. Although it's likely to go OTS it has a better chance of impacting the islands and even the east coast given the extremely complex setup. A lot of ridges and closed lows will make the track forecasts a lot more challenging than normal.
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There's no agenda, it's called reality. But too many people prefer to live in a fantasy world where science doesn't exist.
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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.
SnoSki14 replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
So are there still people downplaying AGW because so far Forky is running up the scoreboard. July like dews deep into September. -
The acceleration in warming over just the last few years has been astounding and terrifying. And the funny thing is that we're probably one of the coolest spot in the country relatively speaking outside parts of the Pacific NW.
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This system will be a problem for someone. Models correcting SW, lots of ridging and closed lows around. EPS is very ominous.
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That could favor Florida to NC as ridge will likely build overhead.
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Yea they were way too slow moving even with the strong WAR.
