SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Late day highs?
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Definitely. A decade ago when the Pacific jet wasn't raging the upcoming period would've been a slam dunk KU pattern imo.
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If the strong Nina lag is true then February might not be so bad. And then Nina March's can be really good too
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What's biblical? 50"+
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That was a nice trend on the GFS. Better Atlantic blocking and stronger heights out west on the GEFS. NYD is a long shot due to air mass and less than ideal track but not impossible especially for NW zones and higher elevations
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That Pacific jet will be a huge hindrance unfortunately. Hopefully we can get a favorably timed period otherwise it'll be cold/dry to brief warm/wet then back to cold/dry a la warmer version of the 80s
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Made it to 17F, many low teens not far away. Very efficient radiational cooling. I could see ice being a bigger concern than forecast tonight
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You mean the once in a century storm hasn't arrived after 8 years? Some of you need a reality check.
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But I worry that the Pacific jet will trend stronger as has been the case and we end up getting screwed.
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Fast pacific jet will have shortwaves coming in further north. Shortwaves cutting are the issue. Case in point, the GFS OP. The erosion of heights out west means shortwaves can't dig south and take that coveted coastal track. Instead they'll move quickly ENE and best case drop a couple inches if the antecedent air mass is cold enough, otherwise it'll be rain. On the plus side the GEFS are showing less troughiness out west, probably has something to do with the big rise in the PDO
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I don't see that. Lower heights out west. There will be shortwaves ejecting. Problem will be some of them cutting vs coastal track
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It could be 60F and rain like most years. This is the best we could get
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They'll be snowstorm opportunities but we'll also risk storms cutting with that fast pacific jet lowering heights out west. Maybe we can get that Hudson bay block to help
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I could see a wintry mix play out but it seems unlikely to me since there's not much cold in place.
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This is true. A colder correction wouldn't surprise me though neither would a delay. Still appears that the Jan 5-15 period will be the best one for us. Anything before that seems unlikely to yield much, if anything. I also don't see a blowtorch Feb. I like the CFS idea.
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EPS not as bad but not great either. Could be a delayed, not denied situation. I still expect at least a period of favorable conditions in January, probably in the Jan 5-15 window. CFS has the right idea imo
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GFS/GEFS trending in the wrong direction for January. Better hope they're wrong. GFS Op is downright ugly
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Looks a little squalish on the 24th. Mesos picking up on it. Maybe we'll get our miracle Dec 3" after all
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There were clear Nino influences this month especially the last third of December. It's not a canonical Nina due to multiple areas of forcing playing a role. There's no guarantee we go typical Nina after mid January.
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EPS looks better than GEFS. I don't like the lower heights out west on the GFS. The Hudson Bay block could be the biggest positive in all of this.
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There's stats to back it up but our patterns have gotten a lot more convulated lately.
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It's kinda funny how the difference between a 40"+ winter and a 10" winter is another inch of snow in December.
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Chances are this snow will stick around through Christmas so many areas will indeed see a white Christmas
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If it's not gonna snow then I'll take that everyday this winter
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There's an inverted trough signal for Friday.
