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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    GEFS continues to improve
  2. SnoSki14
    It didn't really. It just sharpened the northern extent. Totals for mid Atlantic went up. Last few runs have notably increased SE ridging, which is good in this instance
  3. SnoSki14
    Yeah Feb doesn't look warm to me. There could be warmer intervals but weeklies and monthly guidance suggest a near to BN month. MJO and PNA will be favorable for cold/snow.
  4. SnoSki14
    Some great runs tonight. I know the AI GFS was meh but you can't win them all. Hopefully the Euro trends favorably It all depends on how much phasing with the western trough we see. Usually that screws us over but this time it's an asset.
  5. SnoSki14
    Honestly I'd rather be further north than the Mid-Atlantic right now. If models fully phase in that western trough then the north shifts will likely continue. We're in a good spot this far out
  6. SnoSki14
    One of those times where the weenie snow maps actually comes in handy. Temps are in the low teens when the snow comes in...that's nuts
  7. SnoSki14
    Models phasing western trough. Huge amount of energy getting slammed against a massive cold dome.
  8. SnoSki14
    More than decent. Fully phasing in western trough.
  9. SnoSki14
    So much insufferable whining
  10. SnoSki14
    Things can change very quickly. We could go from suppression to worrying about sleet in a couple days.
  11. SnoSki14
    I'd recommend taking your eyes off the models for a few days. Things won't really come into focus until Thursday at minimum. And avoid the hype posts on social media... they're going to be relentless
  12. SnoSki14
    Yikes, this is why 95 percent of the population hates snow
  13. SnoSki14
    These things always get further north than initially modeled. 8 out of 10 times we're more worried about sleet/rain than cold/dry
  14. SnoSki14
    I'd be nervous if we were in the bullseye this far out as these things almost always come north. Having models keeping this south 6 days out is not a bad thing
  15. SnoSki14
    This reminds me of a lighter version of PDII. Wish it were a few days closer however large systems usually stay on guidance and don't shift that much.
  16. SnoSki14
    One of the strongest blocking patterns on record. AO will get pretty negative but NAO not so much.
  17. SnoSki14
    Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block
  18. SnoSki14
    Here's another real test to see how legit these AI models are.
  19. SnoSki14
    Way too early to make this declaration. At this stage the Euro was completely OTS on yesterday's system
  20. SnoSki14
    Very consistent
  21. SnoSki14
    Massive cold dome with trough out west and SE ridge in place. This will yield a massive overrunning storm. Yes there will be a brick wall somewhere but good chance it ends up affecting areas pretty far north. Very PDII esque on AI models
  22. SnoSki14
    Biggies are coming
  23. SnoSki14
    A very wintry weekend. Looks like a snow globe out there. And it should stick around for a while. Only real melting day is Thursday
  24. SnoSki14
    It's def picking up on the overrunning though. I'm thinking its suppression bias due to overdoing the cold dome is in play right now but we'll see.
  25. SnoSki14
    And then a monster coastal after that. Would be an incredible achievement in AI weather modeling if it's even 80 percent correct.
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