SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Sometimes IR doesn't tell the story. Clearly the NHC was right on the Cat 2 upgrade per recon Their forecasts have been top notch this year and I have little reason to believe their forecast will be too far from reality.
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Looks like Ian might be more influenced by the trough.
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12z Euro would not be good for Tampa, that would definitely bring the surge in.
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I think the 12z has to confirm the 06z Euro first because it could've been a fluke run.
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A track that far west would mitigate the surge/rain impacts but it also depends on how large the system is.
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Thats a big shift west. Would spare Florida. And then it slowly dies out on its way to the panhandle. Best case for Florida
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If west trend wins expect a weak system at landfall with flooding being the main issue
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Looks like we should get a good batch. Don't know if there's anything severe there though but any rain is good
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I didn't even bother following any "threat" for today. You'll get some showers and that's it
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I expect a major convective burst over center and rapid strengthening soon
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Some remnants could eventually get here
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Ian looks perfect. The environment looks incredible. I expect a hurricane by 11am tomorrow
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If it keeps trending SW however it may avoid the massive dry air entrainment
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Hilarious considering it may not even hit Florida
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Looks like it hit 41F which is a rare sight nowadays in September. I see many 30s readings in more sheltered spots
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The GFS forecast will be about as right as you've been for this season.
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The timing is everything for an east coast special. The storm has to be far enough N&E to feel the trough but not get pushed OTS by it and it can't get trapped by the ridge either.
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The exposed circulation isn't just an Eddy. It's very well defined and my guess is that it eventually goes westward towards the convection.
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Agreed I'll take that Euro in a heartbeat. The weather has been relentlessly boring
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I would be surprised if the Euro doesn't correct west a tad. Think the 18z run overdid the east track and most of the eastward models went back west again.
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I think it is. Just watch
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This is a northeast storm I can feel it. Piece of the trough gets left back and phases with the storm.
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There's a leftover trough that tries to do it but not strong enough. Another option is it gets blocked by the high building over it as it moves NE. Should be an interesting few days to say the least
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Down to 62F from almost 80 just a couple hours ago
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The GFS is correcting towards the other models. I expect more east shifts I think we'll see a sharper turn NE in to SW FL. That's a strong trough in the east.
