WxSynopsisDavid
-
Posts
511 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by WxSynopsisDavid
-
True but we are now inside the short range and those models are extremely efficient with picking up mesoscale features. I would be concerned with the environment they are depicting later tonight and why they are rapidly intensifying Ian. I haven’t looked at the runs yet so idk what they are picking up but I’ll give them a look and see
-
Wow
-
1. It’s either completing the EWRC and starting to rapidly intensify again 2. Some dry air entrainment is happening
-
It has time but it’s just a matter of “if” Ian can take advantage of the environment it’s in
-
Not everyday you see a PDS Tor Warning with a tropical system
-
Issue is the south quad of outer eye, but that looks like it’s closing off now. Once that happens the outer eye takes over and inner eyewall will collapse
-
It actually needs to close off the south quad. Once that happens it is game on
-
Appears it’s already happening
-
Of course, I was reading something awhile back on shear and EWRC and was trying to remember the article. Definitely concerning we are down to dry air and EWRC to hinder Ian
-
Warmest SST’s ahead of Ian will be on landfall directly over the loop current running up to Ft Myers. Pocket of 86-87 degree SST’s
-
Thanks for the clarification, I tend to focus on the mesoscale a lot in this range and I didn’t see that there the other day.
-
I also believe shear can do the same thing but there’s a threshold for that, correct? Like 25-30kts of shear can induce an EWRC.
-
I looked earlier and there is a branch of the loop current that is now extending up along the coast to the Ft Myers area. Didn’t notice this the last few days, so if you are right Ian would intensify on landfall on top of that warm current
-
Also Ian won’t be over water long if it comes in south of Tampa vs a track to the north. If Cuba induces an EWRC soon Ian will likely recover once it emerges and should be able to landfall intensifying. Very little time to undergo another one once it gets into the Gulf. Of course everything I said changes if it goes north of Tampa.
-
The tracks on the models south of Tampa feature little to no dry air and almost no shear. What you are implying is if Ian tracks north of Tampa. A landfall south of Tampa is the path of least resistance. Point is, if Ian rolls in at peak intensity it won’t be Tampa or points north. Too much dry air/shear situated up there
-
That would also increase the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall as Ian would have time to recover and rapidly intensify through landfall.
-
Hurricane Models have peak intensity at landfall
-
Ian is about to cross Cuba with an open eye and tight CDO. Let’s see what them mountains do to it shortly. If Ian maintains structure and intensity crossing Cuba this is going to be a huge day that we might remember for a long time.
-
And it also depends on internal processes which can never be forecasted
-
It’s possible and very likely Ian can obtain Cat 5 as peak intensity. The question is whether Ian can hold it on landfall. The track that would support this would be landfall points south of Tampa as it’s the path of least resistance. Tampa and points north it will encounter shear/dry air so it’s highly unlikely.
-
Very impressive intensification process right on landfall caused by friction. Very similar to Charley in some degree in how quick it happened. I believe they even had the data to support Cat 4 but will review it after the season when composing the TCR. This forecast by NOAA NHC has been stellar and they smacked the ball out the park with this one. I agree so far with how they been upgrading Ian and the data they chose for further review. The intensity forecast has been solid
-
00z HMON landfalls Ian as a Cat 4 near Sarasota
-
Looking at the 00z HWRF it has Ian as a powerful Cat 4 west of Tampa, bombs to 945mb. Landfalls on Waccasassa Bay State Preserve as 963mb Cat 3. Windfield even expands again right on landfall.
-
Yeah I had a moment man, its been a long shift at work. My apologies lol
-
Which ones? The HWRF and HMON haven't updated since 18z
