WxSynopsisDavid

Now we get his famous "2 and a quarter" first and final call maps along with his cluster f*** start time maps. I sense him making an emergency trip to his local Wal-Mart to stock up on crayons.

6z NAM at end of its range is still snowing. 8in of snow on the ground across south central VA into the middle peninsula. This is a healthy, tasty pre-game for the Saturday storm.

Well...we both know what's next. Those dreadful "2 and a quarter" first call maps and those horrendous start time maps that are a cluster f***.

At end of run (Day 10) theres another storm developing coming out of Texas

That is a nasty deform band. As I said earlier, you can see the pockets of pink in that deform band. Ridiculous rates and ratios under that thing.

The whole state is 12in+ except for SW VA and SE VA both even both of those areas are 8-12in. This is pretty ridiculous, that would shut the whole state down for a few days. Whats very interesting is between hour 108 and 114 the deform band maxes out on the color table. Pockets of pink showing up in the deform band. That band would be laying down 3in to 4in rates an hour, ratios would be pushing 15:1. Wonder if this scenario starts to lock in and hold on the globals or if we see another back-and-forth swing later today

Hour 108 through 114, that deform band is maxing out on the color table. Pinks showing up in that deform band. Some areas that get underneath that thing will have ridiculous snow rates, 3 to 4in/hr easy. Ratios will definitely be 12:1 to 15:1

....and points north of RVA

Thats a pretty ridiculous deform band setting up shop over central/eastern VA at hour 102. RVA is getting crushed

Honestly, if the low could be a little deeper and undergo bombogenesis that would be really nice and everyone in the subforum would cash in and be able to eat lol

This block to our north, per the UK and EURO, and even the crappy GFS looks a hell of a lot better than what we had in place with this recent storm. Will have to say I am concerned with your reasoning for being cautious as that could lead to a significant icing event. This has even been shown on previous runs of the globals in regards to this next storm. Those runs were putting down copious amounts of Ice across the eastern Carolinas

I absolutely agree with your analysis. Though I will say this, we have a much colder airmass in place now thanks to this current system that just exited our region to the north. Also, from what I'm seeing on the models we will have a decent blocking pattern in place limiting this storms ability to coming inland. This recent storm had a northern stream shortwave energy over the Great Lakes influencing it and pulling it inland. So far we don't have that with this storm. In all seriousness, the odds look good that we get a Miller A or at the very least something very similar to it

Looks like some areas could get 12:1 or 15:1 ratios. So in saying that, these maps could be slightly underdone

#BOMB

I didn’t see the rain/snow/sleet line hugging the coast on the model data. Coastal areas were suppose to be rain. Interesting that northeast NC and southeast VA might pick up minor accumulations now. Point is, this thing is already farther south and east of model guidance.

Maybe it’s just me, so someone else can elaborate, but looking at satellite/radar imagery it appears the low is reforming farther south and east. Got that look like it’s going to ride either closer along the coast or go offshore. I also notice the snow/sleet line is farther east, almost to the coast in southeast VA and northeast NC which I did not see on any of the model guidances.

Hugging the EURO does not make anyone a great met. He's far from being a "great" met. We are talking about a guy who was fired from the NWS, in addition to a guy that bashes not only the NWS but every local/regional met. He does this in the middle of storms as a way to divert traffic from his site when he knows his forecast is going to bust. Lets not forget the nasty harassment of former CBS 6 met Nikki Dee-Ray. That was absolutely disgusting and unacceptable.

And that’s a legendary “AmericanWX Hall of Fame” post right there.

Dude….there’s little separation between the zones was the point I was making. I also agree with your point concerning the ice

Oh the cluster f***? Yeah, I got a migraine looking at it