WxSynopsisDavid
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Everything posted by WxSynopsisDavid
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And there its is, finally, the eye of Ian
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If we are talking about Indian Pale Ale's....I'm game for that lol.
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If this rate of intensification continues that we have seen this evening, and it solely depends on Ian getting a CDO and an eye soon, you could be waking up to find Ian stronger than a Cat 1.
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Ian is now over 85-87 degree SST's, moving over bath water. Ian has all the ingredients it needs to RI now.
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Looking at the environment ahead of Ian tonight, besides the lack of dry air and windshear the OHC is very high ahead of this system. Also, something to note here, there are a few warm eddies ahead of Ian so its very possible this anticipated RI process could lean towards an "explosive intensification" process once Ian gets an established CDO and eye. Its also now following the tail end of the loop current so we should start to see remarkable/appreciable structure changes soon.
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Until Ian gets better organized and we see an eye develop, we wont have any better idea in the long term and neither will the models. Expect additional back and forth in terms of track until then
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"The little engine that could"
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Exactly, which draws into perspective that Ian is deepening at a much faster rate than what was originally forecasted and shown by the models. This is going to be huge/detrimental to the forecast track so I expect further adjustments on the models tonight.
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990mb currently, that is a 15mb drop in 5 hours. Very certain we see hurricane force winds at the surface in the next several hours once convection gets going
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Ian down to 990mb, looks to be a temperature spike near the center too. We are likely about to see convection rapidly going up near and around the center very shortly
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To you guys who live in Tampa Bay, I wish you guys the best of luck with this storm and I hope you all fare better in the long term then what we are seeing.
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...and a prolonged wind event at best.
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A better option at this point for Tampa Bay would be if this thing can landfall vs a potential stall off the coast. Both scenarios will be bad but the landfall scenario would probably be the best case scenario at this point. Hard to fathom the disaster this would be
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That is going to be absolutely nasty for Tampa Bay with storm surge going up into the Bay with nowhere to go.
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Ultimately the storm speed/trajectory is going to be determined by the trough sweeping south too as well as the evolving blocking pattern.
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I'm talking about past events and how the GFS handled them. This is typical GFS
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Yeah I would say the GFS is out to lunch on this one. GFS tends to struggle with these Florida canes because it either likes to slide the trough out quicker or it holds it back longer. GFS never really depicts these troughs right.
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Don't agree with the GFS wanting to take Ian on a slow craw up the western FL coastline. Really think this comes ashore near Tampa or just to the north of Tampa. Either way, whether this landfalls Tamp or it slow crawls, both scenarios paint a disastrous storm surge/pro-longed wind event for Tampa Bay.
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Very concerning, that slow creep on approach and near stall right off the coast of Tampa would be a huge storm surge disaster for that area. Definitely not good by any means
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In addition, when looking at satellite loops the outflow is improving at a rapid pace.
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Btw....just an FYI....not sure if anyone is following Super Typhoon Noru but it just completed an explosive intensification process that saw it gain 85kts+ in the last 24 hours. Upper echelon event for intensification processes worldwide
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It all comes down to Cuba. What happens after it passes Cuba.
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Its going to be a stretch if it can rapidly get organized and establish the CDO. The main window for RI we were anticipating was tomorrow evening into Monday morning. If it can get going tonight it will be ahead of schedule on the intensity forecast and most likely lean on the high-end side of the forecast outlined by the NOAA NHC.
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Oh most definitely, very impressive how quick this is happening
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New convective burst rapidly going up near the center. This is likely the start of things to come over the next 24-36hrs so I completely agree with your analysis.
