WxSynopsisDavid

The track ultimately is going to come down on Ian's intensity when it gets to Cuba. Weaker storms tend to go east where the stronger storms tend to drift west. In the meantime its honestly hard to tell what this is going to do for the long-term. It only takes 1 rapid or explosive intensification phase for Ian to become a powerful hurricane by the time it gets to Cuba.

The global models did not have any but some of the hurricane and NOAA NHC in-house models had some dry air over the next 12-18hrs. However, even those runs didn't have the dry air significantly impacting Ian.

This should restrict outflow and prevent the CDO from organizing in the short term. Definitely should act as a cap in the short term

Something I'm noticing in every new model run that comes in Ian is actually holding its intensity longer on these north and west tracks. Last night some of the models were ripping apart Ian and causing him to weaken almost to a TS on landfall. Model runs today are relaxing on the shear and dry air near the coast. Definitely not a good trend IMO.

Yes, however its still underestimating the environment Ian will be in. Does intensify at landfall though

The environment depicted does not support significant weakening as depicted. I could understand if there was shear but GFS looks to have no shear there

Hard to tell, these hybrid hurricanes fluctuated back and forth up until landfall

Recon not yet sampled the area where highest surface winds would be

Yeah these internal processes can be prolonged and last a day or more. Some cyclones can be plagued with constant internal processes their whole life. Theory here is that Fiona has had this constant EWRC to fend off the sheared environment it was in.

Double eyewall so it’s likely an EWRC or the one from yesterday that haven’t completed yet. These internal processes can take 24hrs or more to complete.

It does decent from my understanding. Outside of the hurricane models the EURO does better than the GFS with hybrid storms. Still there’s a lot of agreement among the models that a sub 930mb Fiona strikes Nova Scotia.

There’s also been mesovortices rotating throughout the eye of Fiona today so it could be another mesovortice that went up.

I am a gambling man, so I venture to say given the latest satellite presentations that pressure has dropped again but winds likely haven’t caught up. Either way it’s going to be interesting to see what they find

One thing I’m noticing is not only the reduction of the eye but how outflow is substantial now in all 4 quads. It’s noticeable on satellite that as Fiona gains latitude the shear abates the W and S quads. The rapid improvement overall in the last few frames is remarkable, as in how quick it’s happening. The small eye is leading me to think we get an RI process soon.

EWRC/internal processes still on-going but it looks like it’s about to complete. Cloud tops cooling again, ring of deep convection rapidly going up and wrapping around the eye. Eye is actually shrinking which is a classic sign we are about to get another RI process soon. Also, as Fiona is pulling away from the Islands shear is starting to abate and the W and S quads are starting to improve structurally

5am advisory is delayed to due an outage impacting NOAA. Very disappointing as they have made a ton of upgrades recently. Also, this is not an ideal time to have an outage.

8pm Advisory has winds now at 125mph and pressure down to 951mb. Fiona should be a Category 4 by the 11pm advisory

Fiona looks to be in the 120-125mph range. At 5pm we had 957mb. At 7pm we had 953mb and at 7:35 we have 951mb. Looks like rapid deepening is finally underway now.

"A wild, wacky, comedy adventure". That accurately describes Fiona lol

4mb drop since 11pm and its not even midnight yet. Appears the pressure has finally caught up to the winds. Bombs Away!!!!!

On paper....it looks like it has. Satellite appearance is appreciable, looks like the CDO is healthy. The vertical column looks shrouded and protected, don't see where there is any significant hinderance. No dry air entrainment and shear is very minimal. Outflow healthy in all 4 quads of the storm. The rapid cooling of the cloud tops, increased vortical towers going up along the eyewall, and mainly the presence of lightning in the eye tell me this thing is not only intensifying but about to start an RI process. It's a waiting game when recon finds that pressure has caught up. If they haven't found it yet I venture to say we are very close to that happening.

Very close, right on the cusp of being the first major cane of the year. Still looks like pressure is lagging behind though. Winds came up to 110mph but the pressure still at 972mb. This thing is about to bomb when the pressure catches up, by sunrise we should be seeing a rapid intensification phase underway.

Overall I think this outlook is solid and has a decent chance of verifying