WxSynopsisDavid

Yeah, like i said earlier, the NAM suite has been off this storm season. It was horrible with the last 2 outbreaks and outperformed by the other models. Its doing the same thing, like you said, it did with yesterdays outbreak.

Agreed. Between mixing, LCL's, morning convection, capping inversion issues this is something we wont know until the morning of, in terms of SPC issuance. But this is the strongest synoptic signal we have had for a severe weather outbreak since 2011 over such a large area/expanse of the US. It's shaping up to be a conus-wide outbreak.

Looking at the GFS, these are high end Supercell Composite values being we are 80hrs out. The size of the warm sector is unreal.

New Jersey

The one good thing here is we have a few fail modes being presented. In all honesty, that is digging for something positive right now because the current fail modes still yield a sizeable outbreak.

Looking at the soundings, they are all high-end upper echelon type stuff. If you get past the small issues the NAM has been dealing with this year, those NAM soundings are still high end. As has already been discussed, the main issues here at this point remain: mixing, LCL's, early morning convection, capping inversion issues. Should those issues materialize, the floor would be yesterdays event. If we do not have any of those issues come Tuesday, this outbreak "COULD" rival the scope and magnitude of some of the bigger outbreaks we have seen. I know a lot of people on Twitter been throwing around 4/27 comparisons for size, and its very plausible the warm sector gets into southern Canada, its important to note for size/magnitude that can be debated. Everything else, no. Yesterdays event was close to some degree, a smaller "notch down" carbon copy of 4/3/74. Same areal coverage, same upper air support, but not quite on that level with violent tornadoes. I will say that I am more concerned for this upcoming outbreak than I was with yesterdays...and I still had concerns, not just as many as I have for this next one.

NAM suite is suggesting a strong cap in place in some areas that don't get breached until right before sunset. This would need to be monitored as it would suggest, if parameters hold, this would be a nocturnal event.

Absolute textbook of an embedded hook echo. Very rare to see this signature in the northeast.

There were similar trends at this range for the 3/2/2012 and 4/27/11. But you are right, this doesn't happen often and its rare.

Yes it did, it was probably the most accurate in terms of how it depicted the warm sector and the airmass recovery between the waves of discrete. Also, while other models were trying to congeal the stuff quicker to the south like in Arkansas, the RRFA kept everything discrete or semi-discrete. The helicity swaths it outputted yesterday morning was almost a carbon copy of what was experienced. The HRRR has also done great with these last 2 outbreaks too.

Important to note that the NAM suite was horrible with yesterday's outbreak and was also horrible leading up to the Rolling Fork incident. NAM suite has been getting out-performed this year.

Radar velocity scans were showing 3 couplets with TDS. That was a potential trio, one of them would of been rain wrapped.

We are all focused on the current, on going major outbreak. There will likely be no post made until after this current outbreak is over.

Confirmed by Brandon Copic, dual tornadoes on the ground near Keota

The 00z HREF spits out a “super outbreak”. Curious to see the next updated HREF run.

09z RRFS-A and 10z HRRR helicity swaths

10z HRRR

09z RRFS-A is insane, don’t really have the words to describe that scenario. About as high end as you can get. Even tries to get some supercells going out east from northern VA up into PA.

That is pretty extreme. Between the HRRR and the rest of the CAM, this is as an extreme/high-end as you can get outside of a super outbreak scenario. The parameter space and warm sector is indeed impressive.

Dynamics can compensate for lack of instability (high shear/low cape outbreaks). In fact some of the higher end, more substantial outbreaks have featured such setups. Though I live in the Midatlantic (Virginia), I can testify that overcast and 60f temp means very little in the way of hindering the setup. I chased the 2/24/16 outbreak here in VA. There was an overcast all day and temps were bouncing between 50-70 all day. 2 devastating high-end EF3’s struck Appomattox and Essex. Also, our state record tornado that struck Petersburg on 8/6/93 was a high-end F4. That day also featured an overcast and thick cloud deck.

Florist shop in Rolling Fork, made of brick, completely slabbed. Most of the slab was wiped clean. One of the anchor bolts was completely removed from the slabbed and bent. Also notice the tree damage in the background.

Let’s hope it was a drone

A vehicle got sucked into the tornado and lifted into the upper most portion of the vortice. Adam Lucio has video of the vehicle getting sucked into the vortice, won’t share it due to sensitivity but here’s a screenshot of the vehicle going up into the upper most portion of the vortice.