TheClimateChanger

I think the high of 85 would have been on the 28th, but observed at 7 am on the 29th and ascribed to the date on which it was read. But even so, yes, the max thermometer at that station was clearly reading too high. Probably being exposed to some sunlight at some point. Looking at other observations around the region, there was indeed a large diurnal range. But it was more on the order of high 60s / low 70s for afternoon highs, not 80.

Even Reddit is complaining about the heat already.

The airport is at 2100 feet. The town is more like 1400-1500 feet, so it was probably a few degrees warmer in town. At the airport elevation, no, I don't believe it would be practical to grow tomatoes outside of a greenhouse in a natural climate. In the native climate, the frost-free period seems to be too short. You might get a few tomatoes, but I doubt much yield. Today, it would probably be much more feasible since summertime frosts no longer occur.

Ok, so I did some further research. Here was the article in the WaPo from 8/30/1982, discussing the cold snap: A Cold Snap Replaces Usual August Steambath - The Washington Post Note the record low of 38F in suburban Washington, D.C. at Dulles International Airport. A location more noted for its hot, subtropical climate and lack of snow, saw temperatures dipping into the 30s. As you can see, most people absolutely loved that weather: Of course, they did. Who doesn't like a crisp morning, followed by a warm, sunny afternoon in the 70s? The article does speculate that there could be crop damage from the midwest where temperatures dropped into the 20s. But if we look at the actual data, we see 1982 corn yield came in way above trend. The poor yield years (1983, 1988, 1991, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2011, and 2012) were from heat and drought (except 1993 may have been heat and flooding). The best yield years occur in cold, wet summers (1992, 2004, & 2009). The point being a little frost in August is probably not a big deal. The still high sun angle and short nights probably limited any frost to a couple hours near sunrise, with rapid melting by 7-7:30 am, preventing any significant damage. I mean perhaps yields would have been slightly higher without the cold snap. But it's clear from the data that heat and drought are a much bigger threat to agriculture than a quick, early frost.

I didn't know Bradford, Pennsylvania was an important agricultural region.

Anyways, I'm allowed to be upset about the loss of a natural climate. Regardless of whether the elimination of occasional late summer frosts and freezes were advantageous to agriculture. Just look at Bradford, Pennsylvania. Used to be one of the coldest spots in the country. August freezes in 1965, 1968, 1972, 1976, 1982, and 1986. None since 1986. It hasn't even been below 40F in the month of August since 2014, and the last time below 38F was in 2004. I mean look, it's barely dropped below 50F this month. This type of a change has to have a drastic impact on the local ecosystem. Just because it hasn't impacted the U.P. to the same degree yet, don't think you won't escape these changes. Bradford, Pennsylvania is in one of the most remote parts of the eastern U.S., surrounded by the Allegheny National Forest.

The point is not silly or stupid. Sure, the 1982 cold snap was a record-breaker. Now, we're lucky to see a day or two below 50F, but it used to dip into the 30s in August regularly. It's that dramatic of a change. We likely won't see 1982 conditions for two months.

It seems the latest sensor is a bit more favorable for warmth. PIT has gone from consistently the coldest spot other than DUJ at 1800' (maybe tied with HLG) to the warmest spot, except for maybe MGW. Makes sense given the heat island at the airport, plus the construction going on. Also went from 1-1.5F cooler than AGC in recent months, to 0.5F warmer so far this month. Although, I feel some of that is attributable to a cooler sensor installation at AGC. I think mid 90s are a definite possibility if we can get enough of the warmth aloft to overspread our area, unlike the heat wave last week.

Funny that frost in the UP is now seen as a big deal in late August. We used to have hard freezes in Ohio in late August just a few decades ago.

Some other low temperatures reported on this date in 1982 include 27F at Canfield, Ohio; 27F at Millport, Ohio (near Lisbon, Ohio); 30F at Warren, Ohio; 31F at Mercer; 31F at Clarion; 34F at Waynesburg; and 34F at Uniontown. This was widespread frost and freezing conditions outside of the immediate heat island.

For a little weather history, on this date in 1982, the region was in the throes of an impressive late August cold snap. The official low temperature was 39F at PIT. However, typically colder locations saw freezing conditions. Low temperatures included 26F at Bradford; 28F at Slippery Rock, 29F at Washington; 32F at New Castle; 32F at Youngstown, Ohio; and 34F at DuBois. Bradford Slippery Rock Washington, PA New Castle Youngstown, Ohio DuBois

It is sure looking like we are going to see our hottest temperatures of the season in September. It seems like the first half of September every year features temperatures rivaling or exceeding the summertime maxima these days.

Now this is an actual cold summer. On this date 41 years ago, the temperature dropped to 38 at Washington-Dulles Airport. Widespread frost, and even areas of freezing conditions, throughout the eastern US. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1982/08/30/a-cold-snap-replaces-usual-august-steambath/8ae62318-f533-4734-8ef0-2f9d4a99edc5/

On this date in 1982, record low of 38 at Dulles. Frost and even freezing conditions at many places in the eastern U.S. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1982/08/30/a-cold-snap-replaces-usual-august-steambath/8ae62318-f533-4734-8ef0-2f9d4a99edc5/

Looks like the Houston record may be short-lived.

Not be to be argumentative, we are on the same side here. But also keep in mind changes in observation time and site location. That chart is based on raw data from a threaded record. Observations moved to the airport in 1953, which is right around the time that graph shows a huge dropoff in 95+ days at Cedar Rapids. More importantly, the airport data is likely midnight to midnight. The min & max thermometers from the co-op data were likely reset in the late afternoon or early evening, as was common practice at the time. This is colloquially known as the TOBS error, or time of observation bias. It can significantly impact analyses of maximum temperatures, especially when looking at days above a certain threshold. Due to the time of observation, an extra hot day appears in the records after each hot period. Because if the high was 97F, the temperature at 5 or 6 pm would probably still be 93-95F, and then that's what the max thermometer is reset to read. The high the next day might only be 87F, but the high would be recorded as 95F. This can add a not insignificant number of hot days to the record, if left uncorrected. I'm not saying the number of very hot days isn't down somewhat, but I believe that graphic is exaggerated for these reasons.

@bluewave I bet dewpoint and apparent temperatures are rising though. Here are three plots for Des Moines (1936-present). Starting in the hottest month on record also probably effects this trend. Take particular notice of the trend in dew points. Surprisingly, despite the major heat, 1936 had the lowest mean dewpoint of record for any year from 1936 to the present. Thus, despite the temperature that month being 1.5F warmer than the second warmest year on record (2012), both 2012 & 2011 had higher mean apparent temperatures. There's two recent summers that "felt" hotter than 1936, even if the official numbers say they were cooler. Not enough emphasis is placed on the increased humidity that has also occurred. Just in the past 13 years, there have been two Julys that have presented Iowans with a more brutal combination of heat & humidity than July 1936, but you won't hear about it because the only thing ever reported is the dry bulb temperature. Actually, 2011 (which is only 5th warmest on record by mean temperature) has the highest mean apparent temperature of record. No data for 1901 or 1934, although given the drought conditions would expect them to have mean apparent temperatures that don't deviate significantly from the actual temperature. Temperature [+1.18F/century] Dew Point [+3.18F/century] Heat Index [+2.07F/century]

Yes, that can be done. I just did the analysis using the Iowa Environmental Mesonet site. Here is a link that should generate the plot below: Automated Data Plotter (iastate.edu) September dewpoints have risen substantially over that time frame at PIT, but not 5F. The chart below estimates a slope of +8.4F/century. Note that this data computes average dew point and average temperature by averaging the numbers observed at every hourly observation. You can also download the raw data to an Excel spreadsheet, which I did. For 1990-1999, the average September temperature was 63.9F, and the average dewpoint was 55.2F. For 2013-2022, the average September temperature was 66.5F, and the average dewpoint was 57.7F. An increase of 2.6F and 2.5F, respectively.

This is absolutely incredible. Since the ASOS was installed in 1997 at Bradford (McKean County) Regional Airport, the mean summertime maximum temperature is increasing at an astounding 13.8F/century and the mean summertime minimum temperature at an even more astounding 14.7F/century. May be too short of a period to draw any conclusions, but still surprising.

Lost a tree in the storms overnight. Sounds like there were a lot of downed trees areawide.

Much of northeast Ohio now covered with tornado warnings.

Mesoscale Discussion 2042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Northern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 250133Z - 250300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW656 is likely shortly. DISCUSSION...A broken line of severe storms continues to move southward out of Michigan and across Lake Erie. Consensus within hi-res guidance is for this line to continue to track southward into portions of northern Indiana, northern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western New York within the next couple of hours. Downstream of this line, there is a gradient of MLCAPE around 1500-3500 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-45 kts. The environment will continue to be supportive of severe storms and risk of damaging winds along with isolated embedded circulations and a tornado or two. A downstream watch will be needed shortly. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41518508 41958507 42108334 42718217 43268107 43227964 43187928 42957884 42657845 42047859 41647892 41267957 40838018 40478091 40358120 40378168 40478235 40658301 40868378 41138471 41518508

Mesoscale Discussion 2042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Northern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 250133Z - 250300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW656 is likely shortly. DISCUSSION...A broken line of severe storms continues to move southward out of Michigan and across Lake Erie. Consensus within hi-res guidance is for this line to continue to track southward into portions of northern Indiana, northern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western New York within the next couple of hours. Downstream of this line, there is a gradient of MLCAPE around 1500-3500 J/kg and deep layer shear 35-45 kts. The environment will continue to be supportive of severe storms and risk of damaging winds along with isolated embedded circulations and a tornado or two. A downstream watch will be needed shortly. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41518508 41958507 42108334 42718217 43268107 43227964 43187928 42957884 42657845 42047859 41647892 41267957 40838018 40478091 40358120 40378168 40478235 40658301 40868378 41138471 41518508

Nice. Also looks like there have only been 4 days [in 3 years] with 100+ readings later in the calendar year. It was 101 on September 1 & 2, 1953, and 100 on September 7, 1939 & September 7, 1960. For the record, it was also 100 on this date in 1947.

Looks like there is a chance next Wednesday could stay below 70F. I'm a little doubtful at this point, but it would be the first in over two months (6/27) should it occur.